61%Iran directly strikes US military base in September64%Russia captures key territories in Ukraine50%Swedish Social Democratic party wins most seats50%Fed raises interest rates by 25 bps54%AfD wins Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary election36%United Russia wins most seats in Russian Parliamentary election57%China did not invade Taiwan by September 3074%Bitcoin price rose to exceed $76,000 on September 369%OpenAI's Astra model released in September71%Anthropic leads in AI models and agents92%Starship makes orbit on first attempt93%ECB raises Interest rates by 25 bps

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 3 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

World

Iran directly strikes US military base in September

No US-Iran Nuclear deal reached by September 30

61% certain
lead market 61%next 28%1 venuesettles Fri 4 Sept

Iran directly struck a US military base in September, as a US-Iran final Nuclear deal by September 30 did not happen. A new US-Iran ceasefire did not take effect before October 1, and no US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurred by September 30. The US and Iran did not agree to a Hormuz agreement by September 15, and Iran did not charge Hormuz fees by September 30.

The US and Iran did not reach a Nuclear deal by September 30, and Iran did not agree to end enrichment of uranium by September 30. The Israel-Iran ceasefire continued through September 30, but a new US-Iran ceasefire did not take effect before October 1.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes94%Sun 6 Sept
  2. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes94%Sat 5 Sept
  3. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: did not happen79%Sun 6 Sept
  4. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase54%Wed 16 Sept
  5. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  6. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  7. Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?: Yes83%Mon 14 Sept
  8. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: did not happen97%Fri 2 Oct
  9. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes74%Wed 16 Sept
  10. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  11. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)70%Wed 30 Sept
  12. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes88%Sat 12 Sept
  13. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: did not happen63%Mon 21 Sept
  14. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie: Carey Mulligan – “Beef”61%Mon 14 Sept
  15. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  16. Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?: did not happen94%Fri 4 Sept
  17. Will Bitcoin be higher 30 days from 12:00 PM EDT 8/5/2026?: Yes98%Thu 3 Sept
  18. Will Israel exist two years from now?: Yes99%Fri 18 Sept
  19. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson76%Sun 13 Sept
  20. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  21. Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?: did not happen74%Sat 5 Sept
  22. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: did not happen99%Wed 16 Sept
  23. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Wed 30 Sept
  24. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3087%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)96%Wed 30 Sept
  26. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?: Yes92%Thu 3 Sept
  27. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz34%Sun 13 Sept
  28. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  29. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  30. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes86%Mon 7 Sept
  31. Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen63%Thu 24 Sept
  32. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes50%Wed 16 Sept
  33. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  34. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  35. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  36. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD100%Sun 6 Sept
  37. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: did not happen94%Wed 30 Sept
  38. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: Yes55%Wed 30 Sept
  39. When the Chinese K visa is available, would I be able to live and work in China on it right out of the box?: Yes95%Thu 24 Sept
  40. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: did not happen83%Thu 1 Oct
  41. Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?: did not happen75%Tue 29 Sept
  42. Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen82%Thu 24 Sept
  43. Will Jannik Sinner OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen92%Thu 24 Sept
  44. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  45. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: did not happen60%Mon 21 Sept
  46. Will it Snow in September in Houston?: did not happen95%Wed 30 Sept
  47. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  48. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic82%Thu 1 Oct
  49. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: did not happen90%Wed 30 Sept
  50. Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 140000 kg? : did not happen53%Wed 30 Sept
  51. Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen92%Thu 24 Sept
  52. Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 220000 kg? : did not happen52%Wed 30 Sept
  53. Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026?: did not happen75%Wed 30 Sept
  54. Will Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen94%Thu 24 Sept
  55. Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?: did not happen75%Thu 1 Oct
  56. Iran leadership change by September 30?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  57. Will a named storm threaten the Florida coast on Labor Day (Sep 5-7) Weekend?: did not happen97%Mon 7 Sept
  58. Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase55%Wed 16 Sept
  59. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)88%Sun 20 Sept
  60. Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  61. Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD by the end of September: Yes78%Wed 30 Sept
  62. ECB Interest Rates: September 2026: 25 bps increase99%Thu 10 Sept
  63. Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending July 2026 exceed 25000 kg?: Yes66%Wed 30 Sept
  64. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: did not happen92%Thu 1 Oct
  65. Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 August 31-September 6?: did not happen89%Mon 7 Sept
  66. Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?: did not happen89%Wed 30 Sept
  67. Will Jannik Sinner OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen63%Thu 24 Sept
  68. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?: did not happen95%Wed 16 Sept
  69. Bank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase93%Fri 18 Sept
  70. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  71. Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes56%Thu 24 Sept
  72. Will the ocean water temperature at Santa Monica Pier reach 69.0°F or higher on Labor Day 2026? (9/7/26): Yes66%Mon 7 Sept
  73. Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?: Yes64%Sun 20 Sept
  74. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen90%Thu 1 Oct
  75. Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  76. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  77. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  78. Will Carlos Alcaraz OR Novak Djokovic win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen63%Thu 24 Sept
  79. Will my friend get laid in Taiwan during his 6-days stay (09/06 - 09/11) ?: did not happen73%Fri 11 Sept
  80. 🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: did not happen50%Sun 13 Sept
  81. Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 70000 kg? : Yes68%Wed 30 Sept
  82. Will Jannik Sinner OR Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen79%Thu 24 Sept
  83. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  84. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas96%Tue 8 Sept
  85. Will China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceed 18 USD/kg on September 30, 2026?: Yes61%Wed 30 Sept
  86. Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen93%Thu 24 Sept
  87. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen95%Thu 1 Oct
  88. Will Alexander Zverev OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen71%Thu 24 Sept
  89. Bitcoin price on September 4?: 76,000-78,00074%Fri 4 Sept
  90. Emmys 2026: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt”72%Mon 14 Sept
  91. Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen96%Thu 1 Oct
  92. Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: did not happen90%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: did not happen96%Thu 1 Oct
  96. NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Maura Sullivan84%Tue 8 Sept
  97. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic86%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+50%Sun 13 Sept
  100. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: Yes80%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: did not happen96%Thu 1 Oct
  102. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Will China July 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?: Yes57%Wed 30 Sept
  104. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze72%Sun 6 Sept
  105. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%61%Sun 6 Sept
  106. Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?: did not happen91%Thu 1 Oct
  107. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?: did not happen61%Fri 4 Sept
  108. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes85%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%54%Sun 6 Sept
  110. OpenAI's Astra released on...?: September 369%Thu 3 Sept
  111. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?: did not happen71%Wed 16 Sept
  112. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?: did not happen97%Wed 30 Sept
  113. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: did not happen95%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic84%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)71%Sun 13 Sept
  116. Will premium petroleum needle coke spot price (China) exceed 700 USD/t on September 30, 2026?: Yes56%Wed 30 Sept
  117. Will premium petroleum needle coke spot price (China) exceed 400 USD/t on September 30, 2026?: Yes57%Wed 30 Sept
  118. Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on September 3?: 33°C61%Thu 3 Sept
  119. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)48%Sun 20 Sept
  120. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)77%Sun 13 Sept
  121. New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Cinde Warmington97%Tue 8 Sept
  122. Highest temperature in Wellington on September 3?: 17°C69%Thu 3 Sept
  123. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic81%Thu 1 Oct
  124. Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?: 31°C57%Thu 3 Sept
  125. Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?: 31°C39%Thu 3 Sept
  126. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic79%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Highest temperature in London on September 3?: 25°C44%Thu 3 Sept
  128. Highest temperature in Paris on September 3?: 26°C44%Thu 3 Sept
  129. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI71%Thu 1 Oct
  130. Highest temperature in Taipei on September 3?: 29°C42%Thu 3 Sept
  131. Highest temperature in Singapore on September 3?: 33°C65%Thu 3 Sept
  132. Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?: 31°C39%Thu 3 Sept
  133. Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3?: 32°C70%Thu 3 Sept
  134. Emmys 2026: Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis”75%Mon 14 Sept
  135. Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 3?: 22°C47%Thu 3 Sept
  136. Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 3?: 31°C31%Thu 3 Sept
  137. Highest temperature in Milan on September 3?: 31°C51%Thu 3 Sept
  138. Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 3?: 30°C33%Thu 3 Sept
  139. Highest temperature in Madrid on September 3?: 38°C61%Thu 3 Sept
  140. Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 3?: 30°C45%Thu 3 Sept
  141. Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?: 25°C73%Thu 3 Sept
  142. Highest temperature in Busan on September 3?: 30°C48%Thu 3 Sept
  143. Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 3?: 17°C46%Thu 3 Sept
  144. Highest temperature in Miami on September 3?: 90-91°F47%Thu 3 Sept
  145. Highest temperature in Munich on September 3?: 25°C51%Thu 3 Sept
  146. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie: Oscar Isaac – “Beef”90%Mon 14 Sept
  147. Highest temperature in Beijing on September 3?: 32°C39%Thu 3 Sept
  148. Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 3?: 76-77°F59%Thu 3 Sept
  149. Highest temperature in Austin on September 3?: 98-99°F37%Thu 3 Sept
  150. Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 3?: 34°C62%Thu 3 Sept
  151. Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie: Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis”79%Mon 14 Sept
  152. Highest temperature in Denver on September 3?: 92-93°F44%Thu 3 Sept
  153. Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie: David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis”98%Mon 14 Sept
  154. Highest temperature in Manila on September 3?: 31°C51%Thu 3 Sept
  155. Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 3?: 22°C92%Thu 3 Sept
  156. Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 3?: 31°C50%Thu 3 Sept
  157. Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 3?: 26°C65%Thu 3 Sept
  158. Highest temperature in Helsinki on September 3?: 19°C59%Thu 3 Sept
  159. Highest temperature in Wuhan on September 3?: 28°C40%Thu 3 Sept
  160. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  161. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  162. Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Santos FC67%Thu 3 Sept
  163. Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona74%Sun 6 Sept
  164. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: did not happen91%Wed 30 Sept
  165. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026: Yes69%Sun 6 Sept
  166. Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Newcastle United FC56%Sat 5 Sept
  167. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: did not happen82%Sat 12 Sept
  168. Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?: did not happen96%Thu 3 Sept
  169. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  170. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes56%Sat 5 Sept
  171. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: did not happen93%Wed 30 Sept
  172. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: did not happen94%Wed 30 Sept
  173. Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Paris Saint-Germain FC72%Fri 4 Sept
  174. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  175. EC Vitória vs. CR Vasco da Gama: EC Vitória47%Thu 3 Sept
  176. Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?: did not happen99%Fri 11 Sept
  177. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: did not happen96%Sun 27 Sept
  178. Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?: did not happen96%Thu 10 Sept
  179. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes56%Thu 1 Oct
  180. Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?: did not happen93%Tue 15 Sept
  181. Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?: did not happen95%Thu 3 Sept
  182. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: did not happen81%Wed 30 Sept
  183. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: did not happen95%Wed 30 Sept
  184. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  185. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?: Yes92%Tue 29 Sept
  186. Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?: did not happen92%Sun 6 Sept
  187. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  188. Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence?: did not happen68%Sat 12 Sept
  189. SPY 900 by Sep 18 2026?: did not happen98%Fri 18 Sept
  190. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  192. Daily Coinflip: Yes50%Fri 4 Sept
  193. Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  194. Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand?: did not happen69%Wed 16 Sept
  195. Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?: did not happen95%Tue 8 Sept
  196. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes84%Tue 29 Sept
  197. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes67%Mon 14 Sept
  198. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Will Nancy Pelosi run for Congress in 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  200. Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?: did not happen97%Wed 23 Sept
  201. Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?: did not happen67%Sun 13 Sept
  202. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: did not happen90%Sun 27 Sept
  203. Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series: “DTF St. Louis”50%Mon 14 Sept
  204. Will I graduate with a PhD in 3 years?: did not happen87%Sun 6 Sept
  205. Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup): did not happen95%Thu 3 Sept
  206. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: did not happen86%Thu 1 Oct
  207. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8?: did not happen85%Tue 8 Sept
  208. Will Zoro kill/defeat a Gorosei?: Yes56%Tue 22 Sept
  209. Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?: Yes90%Thu 10 Sept
  210. Will the NFL announce a team for any non-US city by the start of the 2026 season?: did not happen99%Fri 11 Sept
  211. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: did not happen98%Wed 23 Sept
  212. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  213. Clarity Act will pass in September: did not happen89%Wed 30 Sept
  214. Berlin State Election Winner: CDU42%Sun 20 Sept
  215. BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: did not happen80%Sun 6 Sept
  216. ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution: Yes52%Tue 8 Sept
  217. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  218. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  219. Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026?: did not happen63%Sun 13 Sept
  220. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  221. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: did not happen98%Wed 30 Sept
  222. Kommt der Goat trotz Zusage nicht zur Born?: Yes81%Thu 3 Sept
  223. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: did not happen93%Wed 30 Sept
  224. Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks?: did not happen70%Thu 10 Sept
  225. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  226. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: did not happen60%Mon 21 Sept
  227. Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad?: did not happen66%Wed 9 Sept
  228. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: did not happen89%Wed 30 Sept
  229. Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?: Yes88%Tue 15 Sept
  230. Will Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (September 10, 2026 earnings): Yes94%Fri 11 Sept
  231. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: did not happen80%Wed 30 Sept
  232. The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  233. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes64%Thu 1 Oct
  234. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: did not happen95%Tue 8 Sept
  235. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: did not happen90%Thu 1 Oct
  236. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  237. Will the Israeli government significantly undermine the next election?: did not happen92%Thu 1 Oct
  238. Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  239. EPL Week 3 Liverpool vs Ipswich- Will Liverpool WIN @ Ipswich?: Yes65%Sat 5 Sept
  240. Was the ICE agent who shot Renee Nicole Good injured?: did not happen79%Fri 18 Sept
  241. Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?: did not happen56%Sun 27 Sept
  242. Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  243. Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models?: Yes67%Sat 26 Sept
  244. Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?: did not happen86%Fri 4 Sept
  245. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  246. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  247. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: did not happen91%Thu 1 Oct
  248. Will Charles have more years as King than William will have children?: Yes94%Wed 9 Sept
  249. Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]: did not happen67%Tue 29 Sept
  250. Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026?: did not happen88%Wed 30 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle in the coming weeks, then reported as though they already had.