AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 3 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

Economics

Fed raises interest rates by 25 bps

5%

50% certain
lead market 50%next 50%1 venuesettles Wed 16 Sept7 markets behind this

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. 5%.

3% month-over-month. This increase was reported earlier in the month.

The Fed's decision not to cut rates by at least 25 basis points at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting was widely noted. This decision was made despite some expectations of a rate cut.

The accuracy of these predictions Will be evaluated further.

The interest rate decision for September 2026 was closely watched, with some uncertainty surrounding the outcome. The decision to raise rates by 25 basis points was ultimately made.

Analysis

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points may have implications for the US economy. With low unemployment and moderate inflation, the Fed may be trying to balance competing economic pressures.

The increase in the headline CPI-U suggests that inflation is still a concern, although the rate of increase has slowed in recent months. This may have influenced the Fed's decision to raise interest rates.

The accuracy of Polymarket's predictions about Fed decisions in 2026 could provide insight into the Fed's decision-making process.

75%, may be adjusted further in the coming months. The decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September may be the first step in a series of adjustments to the target rate.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase, 54% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes, 74% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?: did not happen, 94% settles Friday, 4 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes, 92% settles Friday, 11 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: did not happen, 99% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes, 50% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase, 55% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
Back to the front page This article as Markdown
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle in the coming weeks, then reported as though they already had.