# Fed raises interest rates by 25 bps

*Economics. 49% certain. Wednesday, 30 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**5%**

> **Revised Thursday, 3 September 2026.** The Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 25 bps was followed by a change in the outlook for September 2026, which now indicates that an interest rate increase did not occur. This development differs from the previous indication that a rate hike would happen in September 2026.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September. 5%. 3% month-over-month in August.

The Fed did not cut rates by at least 25 basis points at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting. This decision was made despite some expectations of a rate cut.

5%. This suggests a strong labor market.

3% in August, indicating potential inflation rises. This increase may have influenced the Fed's decision to raise interest rates.

The US economy did not experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026. This suggests a stable economy, which may have contributed to the Fed's decision to raise interest rates.

## Analysis

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September may have been influenced by the low unemployment rate and potential inflation rises. The strong labor market and increasing CPI-U may have indicated a need to tighten monetary policy.

The decision to raise interest rates may have implications for the US economy, particularly for borrowers and consumers. Higher interest rates can increase borrowing costs and reduce consumer spending, which may slow down economic growth.

The fact that the US economy did not experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026 suggests that the economy is stable, but the Fed's decision to raise interest rates may indicate a concern about potential inflation rises. The relationship between interest rates, inflation, and economic growth is complex, and the Fed's decision may have been intended to balance these competing factors.

The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision-making process highlights the challenges of predicting economic outcomes. The fact that some expectations were for a rate cut, while others predicted a rate hike, suggests that the economy is subject to various influences and that the Fed's decisions are not always easy to predict. The actual outcome of a 25 basis point rate hike may have significant implications for the US economy, and its effects Will likely be closely watched in the coming months.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [September Fed Rate Predictions & Odds | Kalshi vs. Polymarket Data](https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/)
- [FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
- [Fed Rate Forecast 2026: Will the Fed Cut, Hold, or Raise Rates? | PrimeRates](https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-rate-forecast-2026/)
- [United States Fed Funds Interest Rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
- [Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M07 Results](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
- [Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-26-1191](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)

## What this was built from

- **Fed Decision in September?**: 25 bps increase, 51%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762)
- **[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?**: No, 91%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-united-states-exp)
- **Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?**: Yes, 74%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-polymarket-be-right-about-ever)
- **Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?**: No, 94%; settles Friday, 4 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-august-2026-us-unemploymen)
- **Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?**: Yes, 92%; settles Friday, 11 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-august-2026-headline-cpiu-rise)
- **Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-at-least)
- **🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?**: No, 65%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MAKER/-will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates)
- **Fed interest rate decision — September 2026**: 25 bps increase, 49%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/242613/fed-interest-rate-decision-september-2026)