61%US and Iran fail to reach Nuclear deal60%Russia fails to capture key ukrainian territories50%Swedish Social Democratic party wins most seats50%Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points54%AfD wins Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary election36%United Russia wins most seats in Russian Parliamentary election52%China's exports and commodity prices increased21%5% in august66%OpenAI releases Astra and GPT-6 models41%David Harbour wins emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actor92%Starship makes orbit on first attempt81%Anthropic leads in AI models

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 2 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 2 Sept · not a record of events

World

US and Iran fail to reach Nuclear deal

Iran leadership remains unchanged

61% certain
lead market 61%next 28%1 venuesettles Fri 4 Sept

The US and Iran failed to reach a Nuclear deal by September 30, 2026. A US-Iran diplomatic meeting did not happen by September 30, 2026. Iran did not agree to end enrichment of uranium by September 30. The US and Iran did not reach a Hormuz Agreement by September 15.

Iran did not charge Hormuz fees by September 30. The US did not announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14 days of a specific op-ed. A new US-Iran ceasefire did not take effect before October 1, 2026.

Read the full report

Economics

5% in august

3% month-over-month

21% certain
lead market 21%next 20%1 venuesettles Fri 4 Sept

Science

Anthropic leads in AI models

Tops Text Arena Math and Code Arena WebDev

81% certain
lead market 81%next 6%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes94%Sun 6 Sept
  2. Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?: Yes94%Sat 5 Sept
  3. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: did not happen79%Sun 6 Sept
  4. Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase54%Wed 16 Sept
  5. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes92%Fri 2 Oct
  6. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  7. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: did not happen91%Wed 30 Sept
  8. Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?: Yes83%Mon 14 Sept
  9. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: did not happen97%Fri 2 Oct
  10. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes74%Wed 16 Sept
  11. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes96%Tue 8 Sept
  12. Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?: United Russia (ER)70%Wed 30 Sept
  13. Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes88%Sat 12 Sept
  14. Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: did not happen63%Mon 21 Sept
  15. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie: Carey Mulligan – “Beef”61%Mon 14 Sept
  16. OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?: did not happen94%Fri 4 Sept
  18. Will Bitcoin be higher 30 days from 12:00 PM EDT 8/5/2026?: Yes98%Thu 3 Sept
  19. Will Israel exist two years from now?: Yes99%Fri 18 Sept
  20. Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson76%Sun 13 Sept
  21. Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes92%Fri 11 Sept
  22. Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?: did not happen74%Sat 5 Sept
  23. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes56%Thu 1 Oct
  24. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: did not happen99%Wed 16 Sept
  25. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Wed 30 Sept
  26. Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 3087%Thu 1 Oct
  27. Russia Parliamentary Election Winner: United Russia (ER)97%Wed 30 Sept
  28. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?: Yes92%Thu 3 Sept
  29. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis): Carlos Alcaraz34%Sun 13 Sept
  30. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?: did not happen60%Mon 21 Sept
  32. Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%Sun 13 Sept
  33. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes86%Mon 7 Sept
  34. Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen63%Thu 24 Sept
  35. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes50%Wed 16 Sept
  36. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes87%Thu 1 Oct
  37. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  38. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD100%Sun 6 Sept
  39. Will Israel attack Iraq in September 2026?: did not happen94%Wed 30 Sept
  40. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: Yes55%Wed 30 Sept
  41. US unemployment rate — August 2026: Above 3.7%21%Fri 4 Sept
  42. When the Chinese K visa is available, would I be able to live and work in China on it right out of the box?: Yes95%Thu 24 Sept
  43. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: did not happen83%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?: did not happen75%Tue 29 Sept
  45. Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen82%Thu 24 Sept
  46. Will Jannik Sinner OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen92%Thu 24 Sept
  47. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen85%Sun 6 Sept
  48. Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?: did not happen60%Mon 21 Sept
  49. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes85%Wed 30 Sept
  50. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic82%Thu 1 Oct
  51. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: did not happen90%Wed 30 Sept
  52. Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 140000 kg? : did not happen53%Wed 30 Sept
  53. Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen92%Thu 24 Sept
  54. Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 220000 kg? : did not happen52%Wed 30 Sept
  55. Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other55%Wed 16 Sept
  56. Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026?: did not happen75%Wed 30 Sept
  57. Will Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen94%Thu 24 Sept
  58. Will the UAE lift its blanket trade suspension with Iran before October 1, 2026?: did not happen95%Wed 30 Sept
  59. SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?: did not happen87%Wed 30 Sept
  60. Iran leadership change by September 30?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  61. Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase55%Wed 16 Sept
  62. Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)88%Sun 20 Sept
  63. Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  64. Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD by the end of September: Yes78%Wed 30 Sept
  65. Will China's total Eu exports for 14 months ending July 2026 exceed 25000 kg?: Yes66%Wed 30 Sept
  66. Iran full airspace closure by September 30?: did not happen91%Thu 1 Oct
  67. Will the temporary Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route begin operating by September 15?: did not happen89%Tue 15 Sept
  68. Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?: did not happen89%Wed 30 Sept
  69. Will Jannik Sinner OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen63%Thu 24 Sept
  70. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?: did not happen95%Wed 16 Sept
  71. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  72. Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  73. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: did not happen95%Thu 1 Oct
  74. Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: Yes56%Thu 24 Sept
  75. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen90%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  77. United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–33936%Sun 20 Sept
  78. Will Carlos Alcaraz OR Novak Djokovic win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen63%Thu 24 Sept
  79. Will my friend get laid in Taiwan during his 6-days stay (09/06 - 09/11) ?: did not happen73%Fri 11 Sept
  80. 🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: did not happen50%Sun 13 Sept
  81. Will China's total Eu exports for June 2025–July 2026 exceed 70000 kg? : Yes68%Wed 30 Sept
  82. Will Jannik Sinner OR Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen79%Thu 24 Sept
  83. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  84. Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?: Yes66%Thu 1 Oct
  85. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas96%Tue 8 Sept
  86. Will China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceed 18 USD/kg on September 30, 2026?: Yes61%Wed 30 Sept
  87. Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen93%Thu 24 Sept
  88. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen95%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Will Alexander Zverev OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?: did not happen71%Thu 24 Sept
  90. Emmys 2026: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt”72%Mon 14 Sept
  91. Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen96%Thu 1 Oct
  92. Bitcoin price on September 4?: 76,000-78,00075%Fri 4 Sept
  93. Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Israel closes its airspace by September 30?: did not happen90%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  96. NH-01 Republican Primary Winner: Anthony DiLorenzo76%Tue 8 Sept
  97. NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Maura Sullivan84%Tue 8 Sept
  98. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic86%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  100. Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+50%Sun 13 Sept
  101. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: Yes80%Thu 1 Oct
  102. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: did not happen96%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Will China July 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?: Yes57%Wed 30 Sept
  105. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze72%Sun 6 Sept
  106. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%61%Sun 6 Sept
  107. Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?: did not happen91%Thu 1 Oct
  108. US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?: did not happen61%Fri 4 Sept
  109. OpenAI's Astra released on...?: September 370%Wed 2 Sept
  110. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: Yes86%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%54%Sun 6 Sept
  112. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?: did not happen72%Wed 16 Sept
  113. Emmys 2026: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Patrick Ball – “The Pitt”41%Mon 14 Sept
  114. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?: did not happen97%Wed 30 Sept
  115. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: did not happen95%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M)71%Sun 13 Sept
  117. Will premium petroleum needle coke spot price (China) exceed 700 USD/t on September 30, 2026?: Yes56%Wed 30 Sept
  118. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic87%Thu 1 Oct
  119. August Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%44%Fri 11 Sept
  120. Will premium petroleum needle coke spot price (China) exceed 400 USD/t on September 30, 2026?: Yes57%Wed 30 Sept
  121. Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on September 3?: 33°C61%Thu 3 Sept
  122. Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)48%Sun 20 Sept
  123. Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD)77%Sun 13 Sept
  124. New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Cinde Warmington97%Tue 8 Sept
  125. Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?: did not happen81%Wed 16 Sept
  126. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic81%Thu 1 Oct
  127. Highest temperature in Wellington on September 3?: 17°C62%Thu 3 Sept
  128. Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?: 31°C57%Thu 3 Sept
  129. Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?: 31°C39%Thu 3 Sept
  130. August Unemployment Rate: 4.1%35%Fri 4 Sept
  131. Highest temperature in London on September 3?: 25°C45%Thu 3 Sept
  132. Highest temperature in Paris on September 3?: 26°C42%Thu 3 Sept
  133. Highest temperature in Taipei on September 3?: 29°C42%Thu 3 Sept
  134. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic83%Thu 1 Oct
  135. Highest temperature in Singapore on September 3?: 33°C66%Thu 3 Sept
  136. Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?: 31°C39%Thu 3 Sept
  137. Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 3?: 32°C70%Thu 3 Sept
  138. Emmys 2026: Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis”75%Mon 14 Sept
  139. Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 3?: 31°C31%Thu 3 Sept
  140. Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 3?: 22°C47%Thu 3 Sept
  141. Highest temperature in Milan on September 3?: 31°C52%Thu 3 Sept
  142. Highest temperature in Madrid on September 3?: 38°C61%Thu 3 Sept
  143. Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 3?: 30°C33%Thu 3 Sept
  144. Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 3?: 30°C46%Thu 3 Sept
  145. Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?: 25°C72%Thu 3 Sept
  146. Highest temperature in Busan on September 3?: 30°C47%Thu 3 Sept
  147. Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 3?: 17°C46%Thu 3 Sept
  148. Highest temperature in Munich on September 3?: 25°C52%Thu 3 Sept
  149. Highest temperature in Miami on September 3?: 90-91°F47%Thu 3 Sept
  150. Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie: Oscar Isaac – “Beef”90%Mon 14 Sept
  151. Highest temperature in Beijing on September 3?: 32°C40%Thu 3 Sept
  152. Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 3?: 76-77°F59%Thu 3 Sept
  153. Highest temperature in Austin on September 3?: 98-99°F38%Thu 3 Sept
  154. August Inflation US - Monthly: 0.4%49%Fri 11 Sept
  155. Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie: Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis”79%Mon 14 Sept
  156. Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 3?: 34°C63%Thu 3 Sept
  157. Highest temperature in Denver on September 3?: 92-93°F45%Thu 3 Sept
  158. Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie: David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis”98%Mon 14 Sept
  159. Highest temperature in Manila on September 3?: 31°C52%Thu 3 Sept
  160. Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 3?: 22°C95%Thu 3 Sept
  161. Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 3?: 26°C65%Thu 3 Sept
  162. Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 3?: 31°C49%Thu 3 Sept
  163. Highest temperature in Helsinki on September 3?: 19°C58%Thu 3 Sept
  164. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  165. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Lula60%Fri 2 Oct
  166. Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: FC Barcelona74%Sun 6 Sept
  167. Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Santos FC67%Thu 3 Sept
  168. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026: Yes79%Sun 6 Sept
  169. Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Newcastle United FC56%Sat 5 Sept
  170. Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?: did not happen82%Sat 12 Sept
  171. Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?: did not happen96%Thu 3 Sept
  172. Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  173. In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation: Yes56%Sat 5 Sept
  174. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: did not happen93%Wed 30 Sept
  175. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: did not happen94%Wed 30 Sept
  176. Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Paris Saint-Germain FC72%Fri 4 Sept
  177. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  178. EC Vitória vs. CR Vasco da Gama: EC Vitória47%Thu 3 Sept
  179. Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?: did not happen99%Fri 11 Sept
  180. Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?: did not happen96%Sun 27 Sept
  181. Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?: did not happen96%Thu 10 Sept
  182. Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series: “Widow’s Bay”61%Mon 14 Sept
  183. Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?: did not happen93%Tue 15 Sept
  184. Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?: did not happen95%Thu 3 Sept
  185. Will I beat @benshindel on the Metaculus Summer Cup: did not happen99%Wed 2 Sept
  186. Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window?: did not happen97%Wed 2 Sept
  187. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: did not happen95%Wed 30 Sept
  188. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  189. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?: Yes92%Tue 29 Sept
  190. Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?: did not happen77%Wed 30 Sept
  191. Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?: did not happen92%Sun 6 Sept
  192. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  193. Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence?: did not happen68%Sat 12 Sept
  194. SPY 900 by Sep 18 2026?: did not happen98%Fri 18 Sept
  195. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: did not happen97%Thu 1 Oct
  196. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  197. Daily Coinflip: Yes50%Fri 4 Sept
  198. Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  199. Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand?: did not happen69%Wed 16 Sept
  200. Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?: did not happen95%Tue 8 Sept
  201. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes84%Tue 29 Sept
  202. Will YES have more holders than NO?: Yes67%Mon 14 Sept
  203. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  204. Will Nancy Pelosi run for Congress in 2026?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
  205. Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?: did not happen97%Wed 23 Sept
  206. Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?: did not happen67%Sun 13 Sept
  207. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: did not happen90%Sun 27 Sept
  208. Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series: “DTF St. Louis”50%Mon 14 Sept
  209. Will I graduate with a PhD in 3 years?: did not happen87%Sun 6 Sept
  210. Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup): did not happen95%Thu 3 Sept
  211. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: did not happen86%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8?: did not happen85%Tue 8 Sept
  213. Will Zoro kill/defeat a Gorosei?: Yes56%Tue 22 Sept
  214. Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?: Yes90%Thu 10 Sept
  215. Will the NFL announce a team for any non-US city by the start of the 2026 season?: did not happen99%Fri 11 Sept
  216. Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?: did not happen98%Wed 23 Sept
  217. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  218. Clarity Act will pass in September: did not happen89%Wed 30 Sept
  219. Berlin State Election Winner: CDU42%Sun 20 Sept
  220. BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: did not happen80%Sun 6 Sept
  221. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  222. Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026?: did not happen63%Sun 13 Sept
  223. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  224. ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution: Yes53%Tue 8 Sept
  225. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: did not happen98%Wed 30 Sept
  226. Kommt der Goat trotz Zusage nicht zur Born?: Yes81%Thu 3 Sept
  227. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: did not happen93%Wed 30 Sept
  228. Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks?: did not happen70%Thu 10 Sept
  229. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: did not happen98%Wed 30 Sept
  230. Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad?: did not happen66%Wed 9 Sept
  231. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: did not happen89%Wed 30 Sept
  232. Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?: Yes88%Tue 15 Sept
  233. Will Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (September 10, 2026 earnings): Yes94%Fri 11 Sept
  234. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: did not happen80%Wed 30 Sept
  235. The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag: Yes65%Sun 20 Sept
  236. Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: Olympique Lyonnais61%Fri 4 Sept
  237. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes64%Thu 1 Oct
  238. Will Dan McKee be renominated for Governor of Rhode Island in 2026?: did not happen95%Tue 8 Sept
  239. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: did not happen90%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: did not happen89%Thu 1 Oct
  241. Will the Israeli government significantly undermine the next election?: did not happen92%Thu 1 Oct
  242. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  243. Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  244. EPL Week 3 Liverpool vs Ipswich- Will Liverpool WIN @ Ipswich?: Yes65%Sat 5 Sept
  245. Was the ICE agent who shot Renee Nicole Good injured?: did not happen79%Fri 18 Sept
  246. Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?: did not happen56%Sun 27 Sept
  247. Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  248. Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models?: Yes67%Sat 26 Sept
  249. Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?: did not happen86%Fri 4 Sept
  250. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?: did not happen99%Thu 1 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle in the coming weeks, then reported as though they already had.