# Ahead of Print

*The month ahead, reported from the odds*

**Edition of Saturday, 3 October 2026.** Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026.

> Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events
> that settle in the coming weeks, then reported as though they already had.

## Iran directly strikes US military base in September

*World. 61% certain.*

No US-Iran Nuclear deal reached by September 30

[Read the full report](/article/us-iran-tensions)

## Russia captures key territories in Ukraine

*World. 64% certain.*

Ukraine fails to re-enter Rodynske

[Read the full report](/article/russia-ukraine-conflict)

## Swedish Social Democratic party wins most seats

*Politics. 50% certain.*

Sweden Democrats take second Place

[Read the full report](/article/swedish-general-election)

## Fed raises interest rates by 25 bps

*Economics. 50% certain.*

5%

[Read the full report](/article/fed-decision-and-us-economy)

## AfD wins Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary election

*Politics. 54% certain.*

SPD secured more than 5% of the vote

[Read the full report](/article/saxony-anhalt-state-election)

## United Russia wins most seats in Russian Parliamentary election

*Politics. 36% certain.*

Communist party comes second

[Read the full report](/article/russian-parliamentary-election)

## China did not invade Taiwan by September 30

*World. 57% certain.*

Israel also did not withdraw from Lebanon

[Read the full report](/article/china-taiwan-tensions)

## Bitcoin price rose to exceed $76,000 on September 3

*Crypto. 74% certain.*

Bitcoin also reached 80k USD by the end of September

[Read the full report](/article/bitcoin-price-increase)

## OpenAI's Astra model released in September

*Science. 69% certain.*

GPT-6 also released by end of month

[Read the full report](/article/ai-model-releases)

## Anthropic leads in AI models and agents

*Science. 71% certain.*

Also tops Code Arena WebDev AI

[Read the full report](/article/anthropic-leads-ai-rankings)

## Starship makes orbit on first attempt

*Science. 92% certain.*

Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore

[Read the full report](/article/starship-successful-launch)

## ECB raises Interest rates by 25 bps

*Economics. 93% certain.*

Bank of Japan also increases rates

[Read the full report](/article/global-interest-rates)

## David Harbour wins emmy for Supporting actor

*Culture. 61% certain.*

Linda Cardellini also wins for Supporting Actress

[Read the full report](/article/emmys-2026-awards)

## Israel exists and maintains relations with neighbors

*World. 85% certain.*

Israel did not attack Iraq in September 2026

[Read the full report](/article/israel-middle-east)

## Seoul hits low of 22 degrees on September 3

*Weather. 31% certain.*

Hong Kong reaches 25 degrees

[Read the full report](/article/global-temperature-forecast)

## Alcaraz OR Zverev may win US open title

*Sports. 34% certain.*

Alcaraz had 34% chance of winning

[Read the full report](/article/us-open-mens-singles)

## No significant snowfall in Houston in September

*Weather. 37% certain.*

And low chance of hurricane landfall before October 1

[Read the full report](/article/us-weather-forecast)

## Chris Pappas wins New Hampshire Democratic senate primary

*Politics. 84% certain.*

Cinde Warmington wins gubernatorial primary

[Read the full report](/article/new-hampshire-democratic-primary)

## Iran Nuclear deal fails to materialize

*World. 55% certain.*

No new US-Iran ceasefire took effect

[Read the full report](/article/iran-sanctions)

## China's Eu exports exceeded 70000 kg

*Economics. 52% certain.*

Zirconium sponge price also rose

[Read the full report](/article/china-economy)

---

Assembled from 16464 live markets across futuur, manifold, polymarket, predictit.