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Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 3 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

Politics

AfD wins Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary election

SPD secured more than 5% of the vote

54% certain
lead market 54%next 24%1 venuesettles Sun 6 Sept8 markets behind this

The AfD won the Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary election, which took place on Sunday. The SPD also achieved a significant result, securing more than 5% of the vote. The AfD's victory came after they won the most votes, but they did not achieve an absolute majority of seats in the Landtag election.

The AfD's vote share was more than 40%, according to the election results.

The SPD's success in exceeding the 5% threshold means they Will be represented in the Landtag. The exact vote share of the Grüne party was between 5-7%.

Sven Schulze is likely to become the next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt, although Ulrich Siegmund and Eva von Angern were also contenders.

Analysis

The AfD's win in the Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary election marks a significant shift in the state's politics. The party's ability to secure more than 40% of the vote suggests a strong level of support among the electorate.

The fact that the AfD did not achieve an absolute majority of seats in the Landtag election means that they Will need to form a coalition or negotiate with other parties to pass legislation. This could lead to a period of uncertainty and negotiation in the state's politics.

The SPD's success in exceeding the 5% threshold means that they Will continue to be a significant player in the state's politics. The party's vote share, combined with that of the Grüne party, could potentially provide a counterbalance to the AfD's influence.

The outcome of the election is likely to have significant implications for the state's government and policy. However, the exact nature of these implications Will depend on the negotiations and coalition-building that takes place in the coming weeks and months.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes, 94% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: did not happen, 79% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes, 86% settles Monday, 7 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD, 100% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen, 85% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze, 72% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%, 61% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%, 54% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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