AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 3 September 2026
Edition of Saturday, 3 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 3 Sept · not a record of events

Politics

Chris Pappas wins New Hampshire Democratic senate primary

Cinde Warmington wins gubernatorial primary

84% certain
lead market 84%next 23%1 venuesettles Tue 8 Sept4 markets behind this

Chris Pappas won the Democratic primary for Senate in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Cinde Warmington won the Democratic primary for governor, and Maura Sullivan won the Democratic primary for the NH-01 congressional district.

Cinde Warmington's victory in the gubernatorial primary was over opponents Tom Sherman, John Kiper, and Donovan Fenton.

In the NH-01 Democratic primary, Maura Sullivan's win came against challengers Stefany Shaheen, Carleigh Beriont, and Heath Howard.

Chris Pappas' win in the Senate primary was against Karishma Manzur.

Analysis

The outcome of these primaries sets the stage for the general election in November. The winners Will face Republican opponents, including incumbent governor Kelly Ayotte, who is running for re-election.

The Democratic primary results may have implications for the balance of power in New Hampshire, particularly given the state's voting history in recent elections. The fact that these primaries took place in a state that voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential election may be relevant to the general election outcome.

However, without more information about the candidates' policies and the voters' preferences, it is difficult to determine the exact impact of these primary results on the general election.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?: Yes, 96% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas, 96% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Maura Sullivan, 84% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Cinde Warmington, 97% settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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