# Chris Pappas wins New Hampshire Democratic senate primary

*Politics. 76% certain. Tuesday, 8 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Cinde Warmington wins gubernatorial primary**

Chris Pappas won the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday. Cinde Warmington won the Democratic primary for governor, while Maura Sullivan and Anthony DiLorenzo won the Democratic and Republican primaries for the NH-01 congressional district, respectively.

Chris Pappas defeated Karishma Manzur in the Senate primary, winning by a significant margin.

Cinde Warmington won the gubernatorial primary, defeating John Kiper, Tom Sherman, and Donovan Fenton.

In the NH-01 Democratic primary, Maura Sullivan defeated Stefany Shaheen, Carleigh Beriont, and Heath Howard.

Anthony DiLorenzo won the NH-01 Republican primary, defeating Hollie Noveletsky and Elizabeth Girard.

## Analysis

The outcome of the primaries has significant implications for the general election in November. Chris Pappas's win in the Senate primary sets him up for a potentially competitive race, while Cinde Warmington's win in the gubernatorial primary gives her a chance to challenge incumbent Republican governor Kelly Ayotte.

The results of the NH-01 primaries suggest that Maura Sullivan and Anthony DiLorenzo Will be the nominees for their respective parties in the general election. This district has been a target for Democrats in the past, and the primary results may indicate the level of enthusiasm and support for each party's candidate.

The broader context of the elections suggests that New Hampshire Will be an important state to watch in the general election. With a Republican-held governorship and a Democratic-leaning electorate, the state could be a key battleground in the fight for control of the governor's office and the House of Representatives.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election)
- [New Hampshire Primary Election Results 2026 : NPR](https://apps.npr.org/primary-election-results-2026/states/NH.html)
- [2026 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_Hampshire)
- [NH governor's race: The sleepiest state primary? | New Hampshire Public Radio](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-02/governor-primary-ayotte-warmington-candidates-whos-running-republican-democrat)

## What this was built from

- **Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?**: Yes, 96%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-chris-pappas-win-the-2026-new)
- **New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner**: Chris Pappas, 97%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner)
- **NH-01 Republican Primary Winner**: Anthony DiLorenzo, 76%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nh-01-republican-primary-winner)
- **NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner**: Maura Sullivan, 84%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nh-01-democratic-primary-winner)
- **New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner**: Cinde Warmington, 97%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-governor-democratic-primary-winner)