The Probable Times

Next week's news, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 9 September 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 2 Sept · not a record of events

89%Will Bitcoin be higher 30 days from now? — Yes
85%Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC — Manchester City FC
95%SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election? — Yes
83%Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in…
93%Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 2? — Yes

Politics

AfD wins Sachsen-Anhalt election

SPD clears 5% threshold

By the odds — 53% certain

76%next 24%1 venuesettles Sun 6 Sept

The AfD has won the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, although it may not have achieved an absolute majority. The party's victory was settled on Sunday. The SPD also performed well, clearing the 5% threshold. This outcome was also settled on Sunday.

The AfD's vote share is likely to be significant, with a high probability of exceeding 40%. This result was settled today. The party's performance in the election will be closely watched. The outcome of the election was largely settled by Sunday.

Read the full report

Everything settling this week

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Will Bitcoin be higher 30 days from now? — Yes89%Wed 2 Sept
  2. Manchester City FC vs. Coventry City FC — Manchester City FC85%Sat 5 Sept
  3. SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election? — Yes95%Sun 6 Sept
  4. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026 — did not happen83%Sun 6 Sept
  5. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 2? — Yes93%Wed 2 Sept
  6. Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner — AfD99%Sun 6 Sept
  7. Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth — did not happen51%Sat 5 Sept
  8. Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate? — Yes95%Tue 8 Sept
  9. FC Schalke 04 vs. FC Bayern München — FC Bayern München82%Sat 5 Sept
  10. Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? — did not happen96%Thu 3 Sept
  11. Elon Musk # tweets August 28 - September 4, 2026? — 200-21960%Fri 4 Sept
  12. Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 — Yes90%Sun 6 Sept
  13. Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? — did not happen94%Fri 4 Sept
  14. US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa — did not happen91%Sun 6 Sept
  15. Will Bitcoin be higher 30 days from 12:00 PM EDT 8/5/2026? — Yes98%Wed 2 Sept
  16. New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner — Chris Pappas96%Tue 8 Sept
  17. # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on week 1? — <20M65%Thu 3 Sept
  18. Counter-Strike: magic vs K27 (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs — magic100%Wed 2 Sept
  19. Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? — did not happen87%Sun 6 Sept
  20. European Central Bank interest rate decision in September — Rise by 0.25% or more96%Wed 9 Sept
  21. Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 31-September 6? — did not happen90%Mon 7 Sept
  22. Bitcoin Price up or down today: $77,916.01 — did not happen84%Wed 2 Sept
  23. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8? — did not happen85%Tue 8 Sept
  24. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner — did not happen96%Wed 2 Sept
  25. US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro — did not happen69%Sun 6 Sept
  26. Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window? — did not happen96%Wed 2 Sept
  27. Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6? — did not happen92%Mon 7 Sept
  28. Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI? — did not happen97%Thu 3 Sept
  29. Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs — MIBR57%Wed 2 Sept
  30. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 2? — Yes85%Wed 2 Sept
  31. US Open ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu — Rafael Jodar90%Tue 8 Sept
  32. ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution — Yes52%Tue 8 Sept
  33. Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2? — did not happen81%Wed 2 Sept
  34. Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad? — did not happen66%Wed 9 Sept
  35. Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week? — did not happen92%Tue 8 Sept
  36. BSW receives at least 5% and enters the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag — did not happen78%Sun 6 Sept
  37. Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF — Real Madrid CF71%Fri 4 Sept
  38. Plovdiv 3: Thomas Faurel vs Calvin Hemery — Thomas Faurel100%Wed 9 Sept
  39. US unemployment rate — August 2026 — Above 3.7%21%Fri 4 Sept
  40. Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election? — Yes87%Mon 7 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle in the coming week, then reported as though the week were over.