AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 2 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 2 Sept · not a record of events

Politics

AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt election

SPD clears 5% threshold

54% certain
lead market 54%next 24%1 venuesettles Sun 6 Sept8 markets behind this

The AfD won the Saxony-Anhalt state election, which took place on Sunday. The party did not achieve an absolute majority of seats in the Landtag election. The SPD received more than 5% of the vote.

The AfD won more than 40% of the vote in the election, which was held on Sunday and results were confirmed today.

The Grüne vote share was between 5-7% in the Saxony-Anhalt Parliamentary election.

Sven Schulze is likely to be the next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt, following the election on Sunday.

The CDU did not win the election, with the AfD taking the top spot.

Analysis

The party's failure to achieve an absolute majority, however, means that coalition negotiations Will be necessary to form a government.

The SPD's clearance of the 5% threshold ensures their continued representation in the Landtag, and they may play a role in coalition talks. The Grüne's vote share, while not exceeding 7%, demonstrates their ongoing presence in the state's politics.

The election outcome may have implications for the regional and national balance of power, particularly given the AfD's position as a far-right party. The next Ministerpräsident, likely to be Sven Schulze, Will face the challenge of navigating these complexities.

As the parties move forward with coalition negotiations, the actual composition of the government and the actually elected Ministerpräsident Will become clear, and it remains to be seen how the different parties Will work together to address the state's challenges.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes, 94% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026: did not happen, 79% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Yes, 86% settles Monday, 7 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner: AfD, 100% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?: did not happen, 85% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?: Sven Schulze, 72% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%, 61% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 7-9%, 54% settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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