# AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt election

*Politics. 55% certain. Monday, 7 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**SPD clears 5% threshold**

> **Revised Wednesday, 2 September 2026.** The outcome of the Sachsen-Anhalt election is no longer expected to be a win for the AfD. The expected winner of the election is now uncertain, contrary to the previous expectation reported.

The AfD won the Saxony-Anhalt state election, which took place on Sunday. The AfD also won more than 40% of the vote, a result that was confirmed today.

The SPD performed well enough to clear the 5% threshold, which it did on Sunday. This means the party Will be represented in the Landtag.

Sven Schulze is likely to be the next Ministerpräsident of Saxsen-Anhalt, a position he was favoured for on Sunday. Other candidates, including Ulrich Siegmund and Eva von Angern, were less likely to win.

The Grüne vote share was between 5-7%, although the exact figure is not certain.

The election took place on Sunday, with the results becoming clear over the weekend. The AfD's win was confirmed, while the party's failure to win an absolute majority was also established.

## Analysis

The party's ability to win more than 40% of the vote, but not an absolute majority, Will likely lead to complex coalition negotiations.

The SPD's clearance of the 5% threshold means the party Will continue to have a voice in the Landtag, which could influence the formation of a coalition government. The Grüne's vote share, while uncertain, suggests the party may also play a role in coalition talks.

The balance of power in the Landtag, and the coalition negotiations that follow, Will determine the extent to which the AfD can implement its policies.

The outcome of the election highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the formation of a stable government in Saxony-Anhalt.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Saxony-Anhalt_state_election)
- [Saxony-Anhalt Election Polls | Voting Intention & Election Trend 2026](https://politpro.eu/en/saxony-anhalt)
- [2021 Saxony-Anhalt state election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Saxony-Anhalt_state_election)
- [Elections in Saxony-Anhalt: Historical Results, Cabinets & Records](https://politpro.eu/en/saxony-anhalt/elections)
- [Far Right Is Poised to Win in a German State, but Fight Over Power Won’t End There - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/30/world/europe/germany-afd-saxony-anhalt.html)
- [Germany’s AfD Poised for Historic Saxony-Anhalt Election Win - Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-28/germany-s-afd-poised-for-historic-saxony-anhalt-election-win)

## What this was built from

- **SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 94%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/spd-above-5-in-2026-saxonyanhalt-st)
- **Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026**: did not happen, 79%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/NFNL2zc/will-the-afd-win-an-absolute-majori)
- **Will the AfD win more than 40% of the vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?**: Yes, 86%; settles Monday, 7 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-the-afd-win-more-than-40-of-th)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner**: AfD, 100%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-winner)
- **Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?**: did not happen, 85%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/238706/will-afd-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-the-2026-sachsen-anhalt-landtag-election)
- **Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?**: Sven Schulze, 72%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-ministerprasident-of-sachsen-anhalt-20260806155819619)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?**: 5-7%, 57%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-grune-vote-share)
- **Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?**: 7-9%, 55%; settles Sunday, 6 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-election-spd-vote-share)