THE PROBABLE TIMES

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 2 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 2 Sept · not a record of events

Economics

European Central Bank raises interest rates

25%

96% certain
lead market 96%next 2%1 venuesettles Wed 9 Sept1 market behind this

25% or more in September.

This decision was made on Wednesday.

Analysis

The increase in interest rates will affect borrowing costs and may impact economic growth.

The decision's impact on the economy will depend on various factors, including how the rate change is implemented and received by markets.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

European Central Bank interest rate decision in September: Rise by 0.25% or more, 96% settles Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
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