34%Olivia Chow elected mayor of Toronto39%Gadi Eisenkot became Prime Minister after Yashar won election63%Israel failed to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia22%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize33%U.S. CPI rose 0.6% in September as Argentina inflation hit 2%54%Zhuoxuan Bai qualified for China Open main draw77%Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier as Parti Québécois won election41%Liberal Party secured most Senate seats and Chamber majority55%OpenAI missed key product launches and trademark, valuation stalled below $1 trillion94%AI index topped 65 as NVIDIA stayed top company82%Strait of Hormuz traffic remained disrupted as September ended95%Israel-Iran ceasefire held through September

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 29 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 29 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Thursday, 29 October 2026.

Politics

Olivia Chow elected mayor of Toronto

Olivia Chow won Toronto's Mayoral race while Pete Fry secured Vancouver's mayoralty in the October 2026 municipal elections.

34% certain
lead market 34%next 32%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct

The October 2026 municipal elections delivered new leadership in Canada's largest cities. Olivia Chow emerged victorious in Toronto, defeating former mayor John Tory and other contenders. on the West Coast, Pete Fry won Vancouver's Mayoral contest, unseating incumbent Ken Sim.

Brenda Locke secured the mayoralty of Surrey, while Rob Howard took the helm in Richmond. In the southern Gulf Islands, Zac de Vries was chosen as Saanich's mayor, and Gary Sulz won in Revelstoke. Further north, Paul Gibson became mayor of the Huon Valley.

Read the full report

World

Israel-Iran ceasefire held through September

The Israel-Iran ceasefire survived September, while the United States neither signed a peace pact nor launched a new ceasefire with Iran.

95% certain
lead market 95%next 5%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot48%Tue 27 Oct
  2. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms22%Sat 10 Oct
  3. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  4. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  5. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  6. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  7. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  8. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  9. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  10. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  11. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  12. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  13. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  14. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ96%Mon 5 Oct
  15. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA100%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No77%Sat 3 Oct
  19. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL99%Sun 4 Oct
  20. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar59%Wed 28 Oct
  21. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon97%Mon 5 Oct
  22. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  23. China Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan: Alex Molcan100%Tue 6 Oct
  24. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  25. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  27. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry65%Sun 18 Oct
  28. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  29. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow86%Tue 27 Oct
  30. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2439%Tue 27 Oct
  31. China Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Zhuoxuan Bai: Zhuoxuan Bai54%Tue 6 Oct
  32. Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  33. China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi: Elvina Kalieva73%Tue 6 Oct
  34. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No99%Tue 27 Oct
  35. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL60%Mon 5 Oct
  36. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  37. China Open, Qualification: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Xiaodi You: Marina Bassols Ribera92%Tue 6 Oct
  38. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  39. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  40. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado62%Sun 4 Oct
  41. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%52%Thu 15 Oct
  42. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite72%Sun 4 Oct
  43. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  44. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis58%Mon 5 Oct
  45. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Deltan Dallagnol41%Mon 5 Oct
  47. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL99%Mon 5 Oct
  48. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe98%Mon 26 Oct
  49. Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Bolsonaro51%Mon 5 Oct
  50. Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place: Rui Costa83%Mon 5 Oct
  51. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 157%Tue 27 Oct
  52. Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A: LGD Gaming66%Tue 29 Sept
  53. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%45%Thu 15 Oct
  54. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  55. Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?: No55%Thu 1 Oct
  56. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke74%Sun 18 Oct
  57. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: Alibaba98%Wed 30 Sept
  58. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  59. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries62%Sun 18 Oct
  60. LoL: Vietnam vs Malaysia (BO1) - Asian Games Group A: Vietnam100%Tue 29 Sept
  61. Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Tito-Dante Marimpietri69%Tue 27 Oct
  62. China Open, Qualification: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jie Cui: Botic van de Zandschulp92%Tue 6 Oct
  63. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  64. OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?: $900B-$1.00T92%Wed 30 Sept
  65. LoL: Solary vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: Solary71%Wed 30 Sept
  66. Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B: Natus Vincere52%Tue 29 Sept
  67. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%36%Thu 15 Oct
  68. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham59%Thu 29 Oct
  69. Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  70. LoL: Vietnam vs United Arab Emirates (BO1) - Asian Games Group A: Vietnam100%Tue 29 Sept
  71. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%39%Wed 14 Oct
  72. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes93%Wed 28 Oct
  73. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard58%Sun 18 Oct
  74. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti95%Tue 27 Oct
  75. Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner: Paul Gibson34%Wed 28 Oct
  76. Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Gary Sulz55%Sat 17 Oct
  77. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  78. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No72%Thu 8 Oct
  79. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%52%Tue 13 Oct
  80. Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election: Gadi Eisenkot61%Sun 25 Oct
  81. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes70%Mon 12 Oct
  82. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes80%Fri 9 Oct
  83. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+33%Fri 16 Oct
  84. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?: No63%Fri 16 Oct
  85. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  86. Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?: No59%Fri 9 Oct
  87. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Sun 4 Oct
  88. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  89. Fed Decision in October?: 25 bps increase68%Thu 29 Oct
  90. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  91. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro75%Sun 4 Oct
  92. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  94. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  96. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  97. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  99. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  100. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  102. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  104. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  105. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  106. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  107. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  109. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No87%Thu 1 Oct
  110. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  112. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  113. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  114. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  117. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  118. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No82%Tue 6 Oct
  119. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  120. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  121. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro53%Fri 2 Oct
  122. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  123. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  124. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes83%Wed 28 Oct
  125. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  126. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  127. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  128. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  129. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  130. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  131. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Xiaomi95%Wed 30 Sept
  132. Clarity Act will pass in September: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  133. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  134. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  135. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  136. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  137. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  138. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  139. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova80%Sun 25 Oct
  140. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 29?: Yes95%Tue 29 Sept
  141. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  142. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  143. Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  144. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4900 or more on September 29 2026?: No98%Tue 29 Sept
  145. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  146. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No83%Wed 21 Oct
  147. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No51%Mon 19 Oct
  148. Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  149. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes59%Thu 1 Oct
  150. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  151. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  152. Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?: 180-19967%Tue 29 Sept
  153. Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  154. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  155. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  156. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  157. Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  158. Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days: No92%Mon 5 Oct
  159. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  160. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  161. Will random.org pick 100,000?: No99%Tue 6 Oct
  162. Czechia vs. England: England76%Tue 29 Sept
  163. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  164. Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  165. Spain vs. Croatia: Spain80%Tue 29 Sept
  166. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  167. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?: 950 - 960m99%Thu 1 Oct
  168. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  169. Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No87%Tue 20 Oct
  170. Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?: No95%Sat 24 Oct
  171. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%57%Mon 5 Oct
  172. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  173. Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  174. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  175. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  176. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)84%Sun 4 Oct
  177. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  178. Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  179. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula75%Mon 5 Oct
  180. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  181. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  182. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  183. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  184. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  185. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  186. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 200-21923%Fri 2 Oct
  187. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?: Yes93%Mon 5 Oct
  189. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo93%Sun 4 Oct
  190. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  191. Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?: No92%Sun 25 Oct
  192. Australia vs. Brazil: Brazil75%Tue 29 Sept
  193. Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?: No96%Wed 21 Oct
  195. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No72%Wed 30 Sept
  196. Will Muse rank #1 in App Store (iPhone) on October 1st 2026: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  198. Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Trump renames AI by September 30?: Yes53%Thu 1 Oct
  200. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS93%Sat 3 Oct
  201. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  202. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  203. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: Yes53%Thu 15 Oct
  204. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga85%Mon 5 Oct
  205. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes73%Thu 1 Oct
  206. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes66%Thu 1 Oct
  207. Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  208. Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  209. Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?: No86%Sun 11 Oct
  210. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  211. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: Yes70%Thu 1 Oct
  213. Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  214. Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No90%Tue 20 Oct
  215. SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).: No51%Sat 10 Oct
  216. Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  217. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  218. Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No88%Tue 20 Oct
  219. Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  220. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes86%Mon 5 Oct
  221. Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  222. China PR vs. Turkmenistan: Draw (China PR vs. Turkmenistan)71%Fri 2 Oct
  223. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  224. Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  225. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  226. Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?: No84%Wed 21 Oct
  227. Will Solana dip to $70 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  228. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro85%Mon 5 Oct
  229. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  230. Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No79%Tue 20 Oct
  231. Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5.5 by October 15, 2026?: Yes99%Fri 16 Oct
  232. Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?: Yes69%Fri 9 Oct
  233. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  234. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  235. Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  236. Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros: Houston Astros55%Tue 6 Oct
  237. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  238. Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  239. Will hello-lume ship a robot by the end of September 2026: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  240. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia63%Sun 25 Oct
  241. Will I weigh >150lbs at the end of September?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  242. Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  244. Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]: No74%Tue 29 Sept
  245. Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  246. Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  247. Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  248. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 1?: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  249. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco80%Sun 4 Oct
  250. What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?: $1.153M - $1.169M86%Wed 30 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.