AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Edition of Thursday, 29 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Tue 29 Sept · not a record of events

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Science

AI index topped 65 as NVIDIA stayed top company

The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index reached 65 while NVIDIA remained the world's Largest firm.

94% certain
lead market 94%next 6%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct4 markets behind this

On Thursday, the AI sector showed steady progress. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index reached a score of 65 on September 30. DeepSeek and Gemini did not debut the anticipated breakthrough models.

The index's score of 65 represented the highest level recorded for the metric. The measurement was taken on September 30, 2026. No lower figure was reported for that date.

NVIDIA held the top position in global company rankings at the close of September. Apple was not the Largest company.

DeepSeek did not launch a reasoning model called R3. The expected model was not released on September 30. The result was confirmed on Wednesday, 30 September.

Gemini's next full model was not a frontier at coding. No breakthrough coding model was introduced on Thursday, 1 October.

Analysis

The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index reaching 65 signals that AI-related activity continued to expand, but the absence of a higher surge suggests the sector is maintaining rather than accelerating its growth pace.

NVIDIA's retention of the world's Largest company status underscores the sustained demand for GPU-driven computing power, reinforcing the hardware backbone that underpins many AI applications.

The failure of DeepSeek and Gemini to launch the expected breakthrough models indicates that not all AI developers are able to deliver headline-grabbing advances on schedule, pointing to possible technical or strategic hurdles that could temper short-term expectations.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes, 98% settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA, 100% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No, 99% settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No, 94% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
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