41%China posted 4.3-4.6% GDP growth in Q3 202621%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms won the Nobel Peace Prize54%Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev won Asian qualifiers34%PL secured most Senate seats and retained Chamber majority92%Drake album failed to appear, Swift not pregnant as releases missed marks71%OpenAI missed Millennium Prize and GPT trademark71%Russia captured no major Ukrainian towns by end-September82%Iran struck US military base in September86%Anthropic topped all AI model benchmarks in late September52%T1 Academy and KT Rolster clinched league of Legends titles

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 28 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Mon 28 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Wednesday, 28 October 2026.

Economics

China posted 4.3-4.6% GDP growth in Q3 2026

China's Q3 growth came with annual consumer inflation near 1%, while South Korea failed to release its Q3 GDP figure.

41% certain
lead market 41%next 29%1 venuesettles Wed 14 Oct

China posted GDP growth of 4.3%, 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. Annual consumer inflation for September stayed between 0.9% and 1.0%. South Korea did not release its third-quarter GDP figure as of Wednesday.

The growth range was reported on Tuesday, 20 October, and fell within the 4.3%, 4.6% band. It was presented instead of the higher 4.6%, 4.9% alternative. The figure also differed from the lower 4.0%, 4.3% and 3.7%, 4.0% alternatives.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms21%Sat 10 Oct
  2. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  3. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  4. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes94%Wed 30 Sept
  5. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  6. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  7. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  8. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  9. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  10. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  11. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  12. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  13. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  14. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  15. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  20. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  21. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic98%Thu 1 Oct
  22. Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  23. Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  24. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL66%Mon 5 Oct
  25. Will Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]: Yes86%Fri 16 Oct
  26. Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026?: No71%Wed 30 Sept
  27. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  28. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite67%Sun 4 Oct
  29. Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?: Yes82%Thu 1 Oct
  30. Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL98%Mon 5 Oct
  32. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis75%Mon 5 Oct
  33. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  34. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado59%Sun 4 Oct
  35. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Filipe Barros34%Mon 5 Oct
  36. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  37. Roraima Senate Election: 1st Place: Teresa Surita61%Mon 5 Oct
  38. LoL: T1 Academy vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: T1 Academy93%Mon 28 Sept
  39. Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place: Rayssa Furlan83%Mon 5 Oct
  40. LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Galions (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: KT Rolster Challengers56%Mon 28 Sept
  41. Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Bolsonaro53%Mon 5 Oct
  42. Amazonas Senate Election: 1st Place: Eduardo Braga86%Mon 5 Oct
  43. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Viana38%Sun 4 Oct
  44. Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place: Benedita da Silva60%Sun 4 Oct
  45. Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place: Rui Costa81%Mon 5 Oct
  46. Rio Grande do Norte Senate Election: 1st Place: Styvenson Valentim77%Mon 5 Oct
  47. Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C: Paper Rex57%Tue 29 Sept
  48. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%45%Tue 20 Oct
  49. Will Drake release a new album by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  50. Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group A: LGD Gaming62%Tue 29 Sept
  51. Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  52. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  53. LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Galions - Game 1 Winner: KT Rolster Challengers52%Mon 28 Sept
  54. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  55. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?: No71%Thu 1 Oct
  56. Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  57. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%41%Wed 14 Oct
  58. Will "Primetime" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No99%Mon 28 Sept
  59. Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Cupid Esports (+2.5): T1 Academy71%Mon 28 Sept
  60. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?: No92%Fri 2 Oct
  61. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: did not happen60%Wed 28 Oct
  62. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes71%Mon 12 Oct
  63. Chengdu Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Denis Shapovalov: Hubert Hurkacz59%Mon 5 Oct
  64. Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  65. Jingshan, China, Qualifying: Completed Match: Zhiheng Xia vs Evan Zhu: Yes78%Mon 5 Oct
  66. Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Completed Match: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria: Yes54%Mon 5 Oct
  67. Jingshan, China, Qualifying: Completed Match: Keisuke Saitoh vs Koki Matsuda: Yes54%Mon 5 Oct
  68. Hangzhou Open: Completed Match: Rojer/Winegar vs Cabral/Tracy: Yes56%Mon 5 Oct
  69. China Open, Qualification: Completed Match: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Valentin Royer: Yes56%Mon 5 Oct
  70. China Open, Qualification: Completed Match: Ulrikke Eikeri vs Varvara Lepchenko: Yes56%Mon 5 Oct
  71. China Open, Qualification: Completed Match: Rebecca Sramkova vs Jodie Burrage: Yes56%Mon 5 Oct
  72. Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Roman Safiullin: Daniil Medvedev68%Mon 5 Oct
  73. Jingshan: Completed Match: Li/Zhang vs Cho/Cho: Yes56%Mon 5 Oct
  74. China Open, Qualification: Completed Match: Robin Montgomery vs Maria Aran Teixido Garcia: Yes54%Mon 5 Oct
  75. China Open, Qualification: Completed Match: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Adrian Mannarino: Yes55%Mon 5 Oct
  76. Jingshan, China, Qualifying: Completed Match: Aleksandar Vukic vs Ryan Seggerman: Yes56%Mon 5 Oct
  77. Jingshan, China, Qualifying: Completed Match: Mattia Bellucci vs Filip Peliwo: Yes54%Mon 5 Oct
  78. Chengdu Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina69%Mon 5 Oct
  79. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro55%Sun 4 Oct
  80. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot51%Tue 27 Oct
  81. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  82. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro75%Sun 4 Oct
  83. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  84. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  85. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  86. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  87. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  88. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes89%Fri 2 Oct
  90. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  91. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  92. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  95. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  96. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  97. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  99. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  100. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  101. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No84%Thu 1 Oct
  102. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  106. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  107. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  108. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  109. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  110. Will Xi Jinping safely return to China after visiting the US?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  112. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  113. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  114. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 28?: Yes94%Mon 28 Sept
  116. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No80%Tue 6 Oct
  117. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Xiaomi93%Wed 30 Sept
  118. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro50%Fri 2 Oct
  119. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  120. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  121. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  122. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  123. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  124. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 200.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC: No92%Mon 28 Sept
  125. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ95%Mon 5 Oct
  126. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026?: Yes99%Mon 28 Sept
  127. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  128. Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  129. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA100%Thu 1 Oct
  130. Clarity Act will pass in September: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  131. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  132. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  133. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  134. Belgium vs. France: France65%Mon 28 Sept
  135. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  136. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  137. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  138. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?: 950 - 960m98%Thu 1 Oct
  139. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  140. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  141. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  142. Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?: 180-19952%Tue 29 Sept
  143. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?: No82%Mon 28 Sept
  144. Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  145. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova80%Sun 25 Oct
  146. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  147. Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  148. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%55%Mon 5 Oct
  149. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No84%Thu 1 Oct
  150. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No51%Mon 19 Oct
  151. Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  152. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No80%Wed 21 Oct
  153. Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  154. Eagles vs. Bears: Eagles62%Tue 29 Sept
  155. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo89%Sun 4 Oct
  156. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes59%Thu 1 Oct
  157. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  158. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  159. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  160. Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?: No80%Thu 1 Oct
  161. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  162. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  163. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  164. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  165. Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days: No92%Mon 5 Oct
  166. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  167. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  168. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  169. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  170. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  171. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar59%Wed 28 Oct
  172. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  173. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  174. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon93%Mon 5 Oct
  175. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes95%Thu 1 Oct
  176. Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No87%Tue 20 Oct
  177. Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?: No96%Sat 24 Oct
  178. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No77%Sat 3 Oct
  179. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  180. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)83%Sun 4 Oct
  181. Japan vs. Venezuela: Japan77%Mon 28 Sept
  182. Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  183. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 200-21920%Fri 2 Oct
  184. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  185. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  186. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  187. Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga82%Mon 5 Oct
  189. Spread: Eagles (-3.5): Eagles58%Tue 29 Sept
  190. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No100%Wed 30 Sept
  191. Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?: Yes93%Mon 5 Oct
  192. Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes86%Mon 5 Oct
  194. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  195. Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?: No92%Sun 25 Oct
  196. Trump renames AI by September 30?: No73%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?: No96%Wed 21 Oct
  198. Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry64%Sun 18 Oct
  200. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  201. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro82%Mon 5 Oct
  202. Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Arthur Fils vs Martin Damm: Arthur Fils100%Mon 5 Oct
  203. Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Aleksandar Kovacevic: Aleksandar Kovacevic100%Mon 5 Oct
  204. Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  205. Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  206. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  207. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No64%Wed 30 Sept
  208. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  209. China Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Tomas Machac: Tomas Machac81%Mon 5 Oct
  210. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  211. Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes67%Thu 1 Oct
  213. Will Solana dip to $70 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?: No86%Sun 11 Oct
  215. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  216. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes76%Thu 1 Oct
  217. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  218. Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No90%Tue 20 Oct
  219. SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).: No51%Sat 10 Oct
  220. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  221. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  222. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS97%Sun 4 Oct
  223. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2441%Tue 27 Oct
  224. Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  225. Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No88%Tue 20 Oct
  226. Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  227. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC: No92%Mon 28 Sept
  228. China PR vs. Turkmenistan: Draw (China PR vs. Turkmenistan)85%Fri 2 Oct
  229. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia63%Sun 25 Oct
  230. Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?: No84%Wed 21 Oct
  231. Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?: No88%Thu 1 Oct
  232. Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  233. Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No79%Tue 20 Oct
  234. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco73%Sun 4 Oct
  235. Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?: No99%Thu 22 Oct
  236. Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?: Yes69%Fri 9 Oct
  237. Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  238. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  239. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?: No87%Wed 30 Sept
  241. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4900 or more on September 29 2026?: No76%Tue 29 Sept
  242. Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  243. NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?: No99%Fri 23 Oct
  244. Spain vs. Croatia: Spain86%Tue 29 Sept
  245. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  246. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  247. Will hello-lume ship a robot by the end of September 2026: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  248. Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club67%Wed 21 Oct
  249. Türkiye vs. Italy: Italy54%Mon 28 Sept
  250. Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]: No74%Tue 29 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.