AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Monday, 28 September 2026
Edition of Wednesday, 28 October 2026

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Science

OpenAI missed Millennium Prize and GPT trademark

OpenAI missed its Millennium Prize target and failed to secure a GPT trademark by September.

71% certain
lead market 71%next 30%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct5 markets behind this

OpenAI's efforts fell short of several high-profile objectives by the end of September. A court appeal by the Trump administration to overturn an Anthropic injunction was rejected, and a reported breakthrough on the hodge problem Did not materialize.

OpenAI had been targeting a second Millennium Prize solution before the end of September. The deadline passed without an announcement, confirming that no additional Prize was secured. The company's research teams continued work, but the expected public disclosure Did not occur.

The United States Patent and trademark Office denied OpenAI's request to register "GPT" as a trademark. The decision left the branding unprotected under U.S. trademark law. Meanwhile, financial data showed the firm's valuation remained below $975 billion at the close of September.

The Trump administration sought to reverse a federal injunction against Anthropic, an AI competitor, on appeal. The appellate court upheld the injunction, ending the administration's effort to overturn it.

Speculation had suggested OpenAI might have solved the so-called hodge problem. By the end of September, no solution had been reported, confirming the problem remained unsolved. The research community therefore continued to explore the issue without a breakthrough from OpenAI.

Analysis

Missing a second Millennium Prize solution highlights limits on OpenAI's breakthrough capacity and may affect its standing among scientific Prize committees.

The upheld injunction against Anthropic and the unsolved hodge problem illustrate regulatory and technical challenges that could constrain OpenAI's strategic positioning.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No, 98% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No, 89% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No, 89% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?: No, 95% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?: No, 71% settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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