40%Lula led first round as PL dominated Congress64%Netanyahu stayed prime minister as Likud fell below 20 seats24%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize33%U.S. headline CPI rose 0.3% in September74%No standout AI model topped October 5 benchmark83%Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to become Premier50%Flávio Bolsonaro won presidency as PL dominated senate and governors50%S&P 500 missed $780 target as Berkshire lagged83%Iranian blockade persisted through September86%Anthropic topped AI benchmarks in Code, math and agents97%No Foreign powers intervened in Gaza through September 202656%Avengers: Endgame Encore topped Weekend Box Office

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 27 September 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 27 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 27 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Tuesday, 27 October 2026.

Politics

Lula led first round as PL dominated Congress

Lula topped the Presidential vote while the Liberal Party won the Chamber of Deputies.

40% certain
lead market 40%next 37%1 venuesettles Sun 4 Oct

Lula da Silva emerged as the leading candidate in the first round of Brazil's 2026 Presidential election on Tuesday. In the concurrent congressional elections, the Liberal Party (PL) secured a plurality in the Chamber of Deputies and retained the largest bloc of senate seats.

In the state of Goiás, Flavio Bolsonaro topped the Presidential vote, outperforming rival Ronaldo Caiado. The result highlighted regional variation in support for the candidates.

Read the full report

World

Iranian blockade persisted through September

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal and the East-West Pipeline stayed offline at month-end.

83% certain
lead market 83%next 18%1 venuesettles Thu 1 Oct

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro54%Sun 4 Oct
  2. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  3. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms24%Sat 10 Oct
  4. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro78%Sun 4 Oct
  5. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  6. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic97%Wed 30 Sept
  7. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  8. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  9. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  10. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  11. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  12. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro50%Fri 2 Oct
  13. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  14. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  15. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ98%Mon 5 Oct
  16. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No83%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%55%Mon 5 Oct
  18. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL96%Sun 4 Oct
  19. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)83%Sun 4 Oct
  20. Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  21. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  22. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo99%Sun 4 Oct
  23. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes87%Mon 5 Oct
  24. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  25. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  26. "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office: 19-22m56%Sun 27 Sept
  27. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro85%Mon 5 Oct
  28. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon96%Mon 5 Oct
  29. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  30. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco74%Sun 4 Oct
  31. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: <2064%Tue 27 Oct
  32. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic95%Thu 1 Oct
  33. Second-best AI Lab end of September?: Google90%Wed 30 Sept
  34. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%40%Sun 4 Oct
  35. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL65%Mon 5 Oct
  36. Will Opus 5.5 get nerfed within a week of launch?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  37. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+93%Sun 4 Oct
  38. Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  39. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás: Flavio Bolsonaro93%Sun 4 Oct
  40. Will Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]: Yes86%Fri 16 Oct
  41. "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office: 17-20m89%Sun 27 Sept
  42. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%48%Thu 15 Oct
  43. Piauí Governor Election Winner: Rafael Fonteles98%Sun 4 Oct
  44. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic97%Thu 1 Oct
  45. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  46. Central Bank of Colombia decision in September: No change82%Thu 1 Oct
  47. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  48. Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  49. "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office: 13-16m63%Sun 27 Sept
  50. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite87%Sun 4 Oct
  51. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL91%Mon 5 Oct
  52. #1 Box Office This Weekend?: Avengers: Endgame Encore96%Sun 27 Sept
  53. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI95%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Quebec General Election: Second Place: PLQ83%Mon 5 Oct
  55. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  56. Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026: Elmano de Freitas62%Sun 4 Oct
  57. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado80%Sun 4 Oct
  58. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  59. Goiás Senate Election: 2nd Place: Gustavo Gayer70%Sun 4 Oct
  60. Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?: No92%Sun 4 Oct
  61. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  62. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District: Flavio Bolsonaro93%Mon 5 Oct
  63. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place: Aécio Neves51%Sun 4 Oct
  64. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%39%Thu 15 Oct
  65. Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place: Benedita da Silva63%Sun 4 Oct
  66. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  67. Amazonas Governor Election Winner: Omar Aziz56%Sun 4 Oct
  68. Federal District Governor Election Winner: Celina Leão94%Sun 4 Oct
  69. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  70. Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?: No50%Wed 30 Sept
  71. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%46%Thu 15 Oct
  72. "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office: 25-28m88%Sun 27 Sept
  73. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%41%Wed 14 Oct
  74. Will Brazil approve Daniel Perez as U.S. ambassador before its 2026 presidential election?: No87%Sat 3 Oct
  75. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  76. Brazil 2026 Election: Will the U.S. impose new Global Magnitsky sanctions on a Brazilian before the elections?: No78%Sat 3 Oct
  77. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%47%Thu 15 Oct
  78. Argentina Monthly Inflation - September: 1.9 to 2.1%63%Tue 13 Oct
  79. Amapá Governor Election Winner: Dr. Furlan55%Sun 4 Oct
  80. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+33%Fri 16 Oct
  81. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes69%Mon 12 Oct
  82. Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  83. Best AI model on October 5?: Other87%Mon 5 Oct
  84. Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28?: No80%Sun 4 Oct
  85. Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?: No74%Fri 16 Oct
  86. Will "SpaceX" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28?: No84%Sun 4 Oct
  87. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  88. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  90. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  92. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes89%Fri 2 Oct
  93. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  95. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  96. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  97. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  98. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  99. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  100. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  101. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  102. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  103. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  107. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  108. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  109. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  110. Will Xi Jinping safely return to China after visiting the US?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  111. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  112. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  113. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  114. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  115. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No78%Tue 6 Oct
  116. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  117. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  118. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  119. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Xiaomi86%Wed 30 Sept
  120. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  121. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA99%Thu 1 Oct
  122. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  123. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 27?: Yes95%Sun 27 Sept
  124. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  125. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  126. MLB: Home Runs Leader: Pete Crow-Armstrong49%Sun 11 Oct
  127. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026?: Yes99%Mon 28 Sept
  128. MLB: Runs Leader: Pete Crow-Armstrong93%Mon 28 Sept
  129. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 200.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC: No94%Mon 28 Sept
  130. Clarity Act will pass in September: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  131. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  132. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  133. Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  134. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  135. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  136. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  137. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  138. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  139. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No79%Wed 30 Sept
  140. MLB: RBIs Leader: Alec Burleson76%Mon 28 Sept
  141. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova81%Sun 25 Oct
  142. Germany vs. Greece: Germany73%Sun 27 Sept
  143. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  144. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  145. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  146. Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  147. Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  148. MLB: Triples Leader: Corbin Carroll88%Fri 16 Oct
  149. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No83%Wed 21 Oct
  150. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No51%Mon 19 Oct
  151. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  152. Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  153. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  154. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes59%Thu 1 Oct
  155. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  156. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?: 950 - 960m99%Thu 1 Oct
  157. Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  158. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  159. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  160. MLB: Batting Average Leader: Yordan Alvarez90%Mon 28 Sept
  161. MLB: Doubles Leader: Bryan Reynolds81%Sun 11 Oct
  162. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?: 160-17952%Tue 29 Sept
  164. MLB: ERA Leader: Seth Lugo5%Mon 28 Sept
  165. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  166. Belgium vs. France: France52%Mon 28 Sept
  167. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  168. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?: Yes50%Mon 28 Sept
  169. Spread: Lions (-6.5): Lions59%Sun 27 Sept
  170. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  171. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  172. Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?: No86%Thu 1 Oct
  173. MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher: Kevin Gausman20%Fri 16 Oct
  174. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  175. Serbia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands70%Sun 27 Sept
  176. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  177. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  178. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  180. Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days: No85%Mon 5 Oct
  181. Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No87%Tue 20 Oct
  182. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?: No96%Sat 24 Oct
  184. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  185. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes97%Thu 1 Oct
  186. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No77%Sat 3 Oct
  187. Will any team have 5 out of 25 riders at the front of the 2026 UCI World Championship Road Race (Men Elite): No58%Sun 27 Sept
  188. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  189. Spread: Bills (-7.5): Chargers59%Sun 27 Sept
  190. MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team): Cincinnati Reds93%Mon 12 Oct
  191. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  192. Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5: Over65%Sun 27 Sept
  193. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  195. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  196. Spread: Chiefs (-10.5): Dolphins58%Sun 27 Sept
  197. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  198. Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  200. Panthers vs. Browns: Panthers56%Sun 27 Sept
  201. Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?: Yes93%Mon 5 Oct
  202. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  203. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  204. Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?: No92%Sun 25 Oct
  205. Spread: Seahawks (-7.5): Seahawks57%Sun 27 Sept
  206. Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?: No96%Wed 21 Oct
  207. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No100%Wed 30 Sept
  208. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No90%Wed 30 Sept
  209. Spread: 49ers (-8.5): Cardinals62%Sun 27 Sept
  210. Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  211. Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Chiefs66%Sun 27 Sept
  212. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  213. Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  215. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  216. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry64%Sun 18 Oct
  217. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  218. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No64%Wed 30 Sept
  219. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 180-19923%Fri 2 Oct
  220. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  221. Spread: Bengals (-3.5): Steelers61%Sun 27 Sept
  222. Swiss federal Neutrality Initiative passes: No93%Tue 29 Sept
  223. Jets vs. Lions: Lions64%Sun 27 Sept
  224. Trump renames AI by September 30?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  225. Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  226. Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  227. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga73%Mon 5 Oct
  228. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  229. Spread: Serbia (-2.5): Netherlands98%Sun 27 Sept
  230. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes69%Thu 1 Oct
  231. Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?: No86%Sun 11 Oct
  232. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  233. Spread: Panthers (-2.5): Browns61%Sun 27 Sept
  234. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  235. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  236. Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No90%Tue 20 Oct
  237. SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).: No51%Sat 10 Oct
  238. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes81%Thu 1 Oct
  239. Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  241. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  242. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Norway vs. Portugal: Norway67%Sun 27 Sept
  244. Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  245. Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  246. Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No88%Tue 20 Oct
  247. Will Solana dip to $90 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  248. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  249. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS97%Sun 4 Oct
  250. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC: No94%Mon 28 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.