AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 2 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 2 Sept · not a record of events

Science

Starship reaches orbit on first attempt

Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore

92% certain
lead market 92%next 8%1 venuesettles Fri 2 Oct3 markets behind this

Starship made orbit on its first attempt, marking a milestone in space technology. Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore.

Starship did not refuel in orbit before it was caught, as it was successfully recovered to shore without this step.

Recovery of Starship Ship 40 to shore happened earlier in the week, with the orbit achievement following on Friday.

Both the orbit and recovery of Starship Ship 40 were notable outcomes, with the orbit attempt succeeding on the first try.

Analysis

The success of Starship in reaching orbit on its first attempt and being recovered to shore is a significant step forward for SpaceX. This achievement demonstrates the potential for reusable launch vehicles and marks progress towards more complex missions.

The recovery of Starship Ship 40 to shore is particularly notable, given the challenges involved in refurbishing and re-launching a spacecraft after spaceflight.

The fact that Starship did not refuel in orbit before being caught may indicate that this capability is still in development, and its implementation may be crucial for future missions, such as those to Mars, where orbital refueling is a prerequisite for sending heavily loaded ships outward.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes, 92% settles Friday, 2 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes, 94% settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: did not happen, 97% settles Friday, 2 October 2026 · manifold · see the market
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