# Starship reaches orbit on first attempt

*Science. 92% certain. Friday, 2 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore**

> **Revised Thursday, 3 September 2026.** The possibility of Starship refueling in orbit before being successfully caught has been ruled out. This development occurred after Starship reached orbit on its first attempt.

Starship made orbit on its first attempt, marking a milestone in space technology. Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore.

Starship did not refuel in orbit before it was caught, as it was successfully recovered to shore without this step.

Recovery of Starship Ship 40 to shore happened earlier in the week, with the orbit achievement following on Friday.

Both the orbit and recovery of Starship Ship 40 were notable outcomes, with the orbit attempt succeeding on the first try.

## Analysis

The success of Starship in reaching orbit on its first attempt and being recovered to shore is a significant step forward for SpaceX. This achievement demonstrates the potential for reusable launch vehicles and marks progress towards more complex missions.

The recovery of Starship Ship 40 to shore is particularly notable, given the challenges involved in refurbishing and re-launching a spacecraft after spaceflight.

The fact that Starship did not refuel in orbit before being caught may indicate that this capability is still in development, and its implementation may be crucial for future missions, such as those to Mars, where orbital refueling is a prerequisite for sending heavily loaded ships outward.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [SpaceX Starship - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship)
- [SpaceX Starship (spacecraft) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft))
- [Starship HLS - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_HLS)
- [The biggest unproven technology standing between Starship and Mars is not the rocket or the distance—it is large-scale orbital refuelling. Spacecraft have transferred conventional propellants in orbit since 1978, but no one has docked two giant spacecraft and moved hundreds of tonnes of supercold methane and oxygen between them, potentially over multiple tanker flights. After Starship’s 13th test flight in July 2026, SpaceX still had not attempted it.](https://spacedaily.com/t-starship-large-scale-orbital-refuelling-mars/)

## What this was built from

- **Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?**: Yes, 92%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/BrianOlson/will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a)
- **Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?**: Yes, 94%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-starship-ship-40-be-recovered)
- **Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?**: did not happen, 97%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles42ce/will-starship-refuel-in-orbit-befor)