AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 10 October 2026
Edition of Monday, 9 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 10 Oct · not a record of events

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Politics

Likud secured 25-29 seats and paved way for Eizenkot

Gadi Eizenkot was designated Prime Minister following the election.

44% certain
lead market 44%next 37%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct3 markets behind this

On Wednesday 28 October the Israeli Legislative election concluded with Likud emerging as the winner. The party secured a parliamentary bloc ranging between 25 and 29 seats. This result opened the path for Gadi Eizenkot to assume the premiership.

The final tally placed Likud well above the sub-20 threshold that would have forced a new coalition. It also fell short of the 30-34 band that would have given the party a more comfortable majority. The 25-29 range positioned Likud as the largest single faction but without an outright majority.

Eizenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, was slated to lead the new government. His appointment reflected Likud's internal decision after the election.

The result finalized the makeup of the 26th Knesset. The incoming administration listed Gadi Eizenkot as Prime Minister Likud's seat count made it the largest faction in the chamber.

Analysis

With Likud holding between 25 and 29 seats, the party lacks a clear majority in the 120-member Knesset. To form a stable government it will have to negotiate coalition agreements with one or more smaller parties, a process that can shape policy concessions and cabinet composition.

Gadi Eizenkot's elevation to Prime Minister introduces a former military chief into civilian leadership. His background suggests a potential emphasis on security and defense issues, while his relative distance from veteran politicians may affect internal party dynamics and public perception.

How Likud assembles its partners will determine the government's stance on domestic reforms, foreign policy, and the broader regional environment, though the exact configuration remains uncertain.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot, 44% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud, 51% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 25-29, 49% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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