AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 2 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 2 Sept · not a record of events

Economics

Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points

Decision made at September meeting

50% certain
lead market 50%next 50%1 venuesettles Wed 16 Sept6 markets behind this

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.

The Fed did not cut rates by at least 25 basis points at the meeting.

Polymarket was correct about the Fed decision, as part of being right about every Fed decision in 2026.

The decision was part of a series of Fed decisions from June to September that did not follow a pattern of pause, pause, pause or pause, pause, cut.

The rate increase was in line with some expectations, with a rate hike considered more likely than not.

Analysis

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points may indicate a shift in the bank's monetary policy, potentially signaling a response to changes in the economy.

1% last September, which may have influenced the Fed's choice to raise rates.

The rate hike may impact the economy, particularly in relation to borrowing costs and economic growth, and could be seen as a move to control inflation.

75% after a series of cuts, and may be a step towards reaching a desired policy rate, although the implications of this decision are still uncertain.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Fed Decision in September?: 25 bps increase, 54% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes, 74% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?: did not happen, 99% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?: Yes, 50% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other, 55% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Fed interest rate decision — September 2026: 25 bps increase, 55% settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · futuur · see the market
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