# Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points

*Economics. 50% certain. Wednesday, 16 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Decision made at September meeting**

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.

The Fed did not cut rates by at least 25 basis points at the meeting.

Polymarket was correct about the Fed decision, as part of being right about every Fed decision in 2026.

The decision was part of a series of Fed decisions from June to September that did not follow a pattern of pause, pause, pause or pause, pause, cut.

The rate increase was in line with some expectations, with a rate hike considered more likely than not.

## Analysis

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points may indicate a shift in the bank's monetary policy, potentially signaling a response to changes in the economy.

1% last September, which may have influenced the Fed's choice to raise rates.

The rate hike may impact the economy, particularly in relation to borrowing costs and economic growth, and could be seen as a move to control inflation.

75% after a series of cuts, and may be a step towards reaching a desired policy rate, although the implications of this decision are still uncertain.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [What Changed? | Seeking Alpha](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4935819-what-changed)
- [Fed Rate Forecast 2026: Will the Fed Cut, Hold, or Raise Rates? | PrimeRates](https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-rate-forecast-2026/)
- [What’s The Fed’s Next Move? | J.P. Morgan Global Research](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)
- [FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
- [The Fed - Meeting calendars and information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
- [Will the Fed Hike Rates in September? A 25-Basis-Point Move Is Now Expected: Why July’s Hold Has ‘Lowered the Bar’ | Chase](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/september-2026-rate-hike-now-expected-amid-energy-shocks)

## What this was built from

- **Fed Decision in September?**: 25 bps increase, 54%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762)
- **Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?**: Yes, 74%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-polymarket-be-right-about-ever)
- **Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?**: did not happen, 99%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-at-least)
- **🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?**: Yes, 50%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MAKER/-will-the-fed-raise-interest-rates)
- **Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)**: Other, 55%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-jun-sep)
- **Fed interest rate decision — September 2026**: 25 bps increase, 55%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/242613/fed-interest-rate-decision-september-2026)