AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Friday, 2 October 2026
Edition of Sunday, 1 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Fri 2 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Sunday, 1 November 2026.

Politics

Tarcísio de Freitas re-Elected as São Paulo governor

Cleitinho Azevedo won Minas Gerais for Republicanos and Eduardo Paes won Rio de Janeiro.

64% certain
lead market 64%next 36%1 venuesettles Mon 5 Oct10 markets behind this

On Monday 5 October voters in Brazil's most populous state chose Tarcísio de Freitas to continue as governor of São Paulo. The same ballot also delivered a victory for Cleitinho Azevedo in Minas Gerais, where he defeated Benoni Mendes.

Jorginho Mello secured the governorship of Santa Catarina, beating Marcelo Brigadeiro. In Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes emerged as the winner over Douglas Ruas. Jerônimo Rodrigues won the Bahia race, defeating ACM Neto, while João Campos took the governorship of Pernambuco from Raquel Lyra and Ivan Moraes.

Luciano Zucco was Elected governor of Rio Grande do Sul, surpassing Juliana Brizola and Gabriel Souza. Rafael Fonteles won the Piauí contest, defeating Joel Rodrigues. In Ceará, Elmano de Freitas prevailed over Ciro Gomes, Eduardo Girão and Professor Jarir Pereira Pereira.

All but two of the gubernatorial contests were decided on Monday, while Minas Gerais and Ceará reported their results on Sunday 4 October. The outcomes covered ten states in total.

With Tarcísio de Freitas, Jorginho Mello, Cleitinho Azevedo, Eduardo Paes, Jerônimo Rodrigues, João Campos, Luciano Zucco, Rafael Fonteles, Elmano de Freitas and others now in office, the 2026 gubernatorial elections delivered a broad set of new leadership across Brazil. The victors span the southeast, south, northeast and central regions. The slate includes at least one Republicanos governor.

Analysis

Continuity in the state's leadership may reinforce its role as Brazil's economic engine and influence national debates on fiscal reforms.

The emergence of Cleitinho Azevedo as a Republicanos governor in Minas Gerais introduces a new partisan dynamic in a traditionally contested region.

With governors from ten states now in place, the federal government will need to coordinate with a more diverse set of leaders ahead of the 2027 national elections. The varied political backgrounds of the governors may lead to competing priorities on infrastructure, public security and social spending, testing the capacity for intergovernmental collaboration.

Uncertainties remain regarding how the new administrations will align with President Lula's agenda, especially in states where opposition parties hold sway. The effectiveness of policy implementation will depend on each governor's ability to negotiate with Congress and manage local expectations, making the coming months critical for Brazil's political stability.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos), 85% settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo, 99% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes, 70% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas, 100% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues, 64% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco, 85% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Pernambuco Governor Election Winner: João Campos, 70% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Piauí Governor Election Winner: Rafael Fonteles, 99% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello, 100% settles Monday, 5 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026: Elmano de Freitas, 72% settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
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