# Tarcísio de Freitas re-Elected as São Paulo governor

*Politics. 64% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Cleitinho Azevedo won Minas Gerais for Republicanos and Eduardo Paes won Rio de Janeiro.**

On Monday 5 October voters in Brazil's most populous state chose Tarcísio de Freitas to continue as governor of São Paulo. The same ballot also delivered a victory for Cleitinho Azevedo in Minas Gerais, where he defeated Benoni Mendes.

Jorginho Mello secured the governorship of Santa Catarina, beating Marcelo Brigadeiro. In Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes emerged as the winner over Douglas Ruas. Jerônimo Rodrigues won the Bahia race, defeating ACM Neto, while João Campos took the governorship of Pernambuco from Raquel Lyra and Ivan Moraes.

Luciano Zucco was Elected governor of Rio Grande do Sul, surpassing Juliana Brizola and Gabriel Souza. Rafael Fonteles won the Piauí contest, defeating Joel Rodrigues. In Ceará, Elmano de Freitas prevailed over Ciro Gomes, Eduardo Girão and Professor Jarir Pereira Pereira.

All but two of the gubernatorial contests were decided on Monday, while Minas Gerais and Ceará reported their results on Sunday 4 October. The outcomes covered ten states in total.

With Tarcísio de Freitas, Jorginho Mello, Cleitinho Azevedo, Eduardo Paes, Jerônimo Rodrigues, João Campos, Luciano Zucco, Rafael Fonteles, Elmano de Freitas and others now in office, the 2026 gubernatorial elections delivered a broad set of new leadership across Brazil. The victors span the southeast, south, northeast and central regions. The slate includes at least one Republicanos governor.

## Analysis

Continuity in the state's leadership may reinforce its role as Brazil's economic engine and influence national debates on fiscal reforms.

The emergence of Cleitinho Azevedo as a Republicanos governor in Minas Gerais introduces a new partisan dynamic in a traditionally contested region.

With governors from ten states now in place, the federal government will need to coordinate with a more diverse set of leaders ahead of the 2027 national elections. The varied political backgrounds of the governors may lead to competing priorities on infrastructure, public security and social spending, testing the capacity for intergovernmental collaboration.

Uncertainties remain regarding how the new administrations will align with President Lula's agenda, especially in states where opposition parties hold sway. The effectiveness of policy implementation will depend on each governor's ability to negotiate with Congress and manage local expectations, making the coming months critical for Brazil's political stability.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2022 São Paulo general election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_S%C3%A3o_Paulo_gubernatorial_election)
- [Tarcísio de Freitas - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarc%C3%ADsio_de_Freitas)
- [Brazil's São Paulo Governor Holds 16-Point Poll Lead a Week Before Vote](https://www.riotimesonline.com/sao-paulo-governor-race-poll-average-tarcisio-haddad-2026)
- [2026 São Paulo general election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_S%C3%A3o_Paulo_general_election)

## What this was built from

- **Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026**: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos), 85%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/236763/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner-in-2026)
- **Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner**: Cleitinho Azevedo, 99%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/minas-gerais-governor-election-winner)
- **Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner**: Eduardo Paes, 70%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-de-janeiro-governor-election-winner-20260608202949176)
- **São Paulo Governor Election Winner**: Tarcísio de Freitas, 100%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/so-paulo-governor-election-winner)
- **Bahia Governor Election Winner**: Jerônimo Rodrigues, 64%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bahia-governor-election-winner)
- **Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner**: Luciano Zucco, 85%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/rio-grande-do-sul-governor-election-winner)
- **Pernambuco Governor Election Winner**: João Campos, 70%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/pernambuco-governor-election-winner-20260709143134925)
- **Piauí Governor Election Winner**: Rafael Fonteles, 99%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/piaui-governor-election-winner)
- **Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner **: Jorginho Mello, 100%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/santa-catarina-governor-election-winner-20260609164309743)
- **Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026**: Elmano de Freitas, 72%; settles Sunday, 4 October 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/236765/ceara-governor-election-winner-in-2026)