85%U.S. kept election schedule, diesel ban off table, no Canada tariff deal85%US kept Iranian blockade in October 202638%Anthropic topped most AI benchmarks76%Apple unveiled foldable iPhone in October30%Eurozone growth slowed to 0.8-1.1% as Asia surged33%ECB, BoJ and Colombia kept rates steady on Friday51%Commanders covered 2H Spread against 49ers36%Verity opened to $33 million while Digger earned under $17 million68%Alex de Minaur defeated Quentin Halys at China Open77%US-backed Yemen ceasefire held steady through October 993%Bolsonaro led in polls as candidates skipped debate49%Lula secured sub-5% first-round win, Bolsonaro second

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 3 October 2026
Edition of Monday, 2 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 3 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Monday, 2 November 2026.

Politics

U.S. kept election schedule, diesel ban off table, no Canada tariff deal

Midterms proceeded as planned and existing trade rules with Canada stayed unchanged.

85% certain
lead market 85%next 16%1 venuesettles Sun 1 Nov

The federal government confirmed that the 2026 midterm elections proceeded on schedule. It also recorded that no diesel export ban would be announced by October 31. Additionally, negotiations with Canada did not yield a new tariff-lowering agreement by that date.

The decision on the diesel export ban was logged on Sunday, November 1. The record indicated that exporters faced no new restrictions. Existing export procedures therefore continued unchanged.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Fed Decision in October?: No change81%Thu 29 Oct
  2. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro74%Mon 5 Oct
  3. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos59%Mon 5 Oct
  4. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  5. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  6. Which company has the best AI model end of October?: Google59%Sat 31 Oct
  7. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes99%Mon 5 Oct
  8. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No95%Mon 5 Oct
  9. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  10. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%66%Mon 5 Oct
  11. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  12. US GDP growth in Q3 2026?: ≥3.0%63%Fri 30 Oct
  13. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change94%Fri 30 Oct
  14. China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys: Alex de Minaur100%Fri 9 Oct
  15. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%49%Sun 4 Oct
  16. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+89%Sun 4 Oct
  17. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes99%Mon 5 Oct
  18. China Open: Katie Volynets vs Elise Mertens: Elise Mertens82%Fri 9 Oct
  19. Spread: Colts (-3.5): Colts53%Sun 4 Oct
  20. Colts vs. Commanders: Colts57%Sun 4 Oct
  21. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  22. Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  23. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change68%Wed 28 Oct
  24. Best Chinese AI Company end of October?: Xiaomi46%Sat 31 Oct
  25. Rams vs. Eagles: Rams58%Sun 4 Oct
  26. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m98%Sun 4 Oct
  27. U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026: No97%Mon 2 Nov
  28. Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  29. Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?: No89%Sun 1 Nov
  30. Spread: Bills (-6.5): Bills55%Sun 4 Oct
  31. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  32. China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa: Cristina Bucsa68%Sat 10 Oct
  33. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 182%Sun 11 Oct
  34. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?: Anthropic73%Sun 1 Nov
  35. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais: Lula79%Mon 5 Oct
  36. Cowboys vs. Texans: Texans56%Sun 4 Oct
  37. Spread: 49ers (-2.5): 49ers52%Sun 4 Oct
  38. China Open: Maria Sakkari vs Storm Hunter: Maria Sakkari100%Fri 9 Oct
  39. #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On): Meta50%Sat 31 Oct
  40. Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  41. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office: 28m+98%Sun 4 Oct
  42. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  43. Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  44. Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?: Yes76%Sun 1 Nov
  45. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?: Yes99%Sat 31 Oct
  46. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%49%Fri 30 Oct
  47. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%73%Wed 21 Oct
  48. IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  49. GTA VI released by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  50. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.3%+46%Fri 30 Oct
  51. Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On): Google57%Sat 31 Oct
  52. Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?: No99%Sun 4 Oct
  53. Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?: Google38%Sat 31 Oct
  54. South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?: 3.0–3.4%38%Wed 28 Oct
  55. Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: Google44%Sat 31 Oct
  56. Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sun 1 Nov
  57. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change91%Wed 21 Oct
  58. Lula participates in debate before first round?: No99%Sat 3 Oct
  59. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?: Anthropic59%Sat 31 Oct
  60. Largest Company end of October 2026?: NVIDIA93%Sun 1 Nov
  61. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  62. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?: Anthropic60%Sat 31 Oct
  63. Second-best AI Lab end of October?: Anthropic52%Sat 31 Oct
  64. US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?: No85%Sun 1 Nov
  65. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes): <9m90%Sun 4 Oct
  66. Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 2.5-3.0%30%Fri 30 Oct
  67. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes89%Fri 9 Oct
  68. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  69. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?: OpenAI87%Sat 31 Oct
  70. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?: Anthropic74%Sat 31 Oct
  71. Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?: No release by October 3183%Sun 11 Oct
  72. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?: OpenAI75%Sat 31 Oct
  73. Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?: Anthropic99%Sun 1 Nov
  74. Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5?: Bolsonaro93%Mon 5 Oct
  75. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?: Anthropic79%Sat 31 Oct
  76. Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?: OpenAI87%Sun 1 Nov
  77. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change46%Fri 30 Oct
  78. Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?: Google48%Sat 31 Oct
  79. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No98%Sat 3 Oct
  80. Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?: Yes77%Wed 7 Oct
  81. Renan Santos participates in debate before first round?: No100%Sat 3 Oct
  82. Fed interest rate decision — October 2026: No change81%Wed 28 Oct
  83. Best AI model on October 12?: Other97%Tue 13 Oct
  84. How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?: 033%Wed 28 Oct
  85. 2H Spread: Broncos (-20.5): Broncos52%Sun 25 Oct
  86. Will "Digger" score at least 53 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No80%Mon 5 Oct
  87. 2H Spread: Titans (-10.5): Browns53%Sun 25 Oct
  88. 2H Spread: Dolphins (-14.5): Dolphins52%Sun 25 Oct
  89. 2H Spread: Browns (-10.5): Browns51%Sun 25 Oct
  90. 2H Spread: Jets (-2.5): Jets52%Sun 25 Oct
  91. Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?: No74%Sat 10 Oct
  92. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes): 32-34m47%Sun 4 Oct
  93. 2H Spread: Commanders (-2.5): Commanders55%Tue 20 Oct
  94. "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office: 11-12m36%Sun 4 Oct
  95. Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM): 0.0 to 0.1%33%Fri 30 Oct
  96. Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026: No change83%Fri 30 Oct
  97. 2H Spread: Cowboys (-2.5): Cowboys53%Mon 19 Oct
  98. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro54%Mon 5 Oct
  99. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot45%Wed 28 Oct
  100. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Lamine Yamal47%Sat 31 Oct
  101. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms26%Sat 10 Oct
  102. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?: No96%Sun 1 Nov
  103. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 3?: Yes94%Sat 3 Oct
  104. Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  105. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  106. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No93%Sat 31 Oct
  107. MLB World Series Champion 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers30%Sat 31 Oct
  108. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes76%Sat 31 Oct
  109. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro52%Sat 3 Oct
  110. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?: Yes81%Sat 31 Oct
  111. Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  112. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sat 31 Oct
  113. Spain vs. Czechia: Spain79%Sat 3 Oct
  114. Argentina vs. Burkina Faso: Argentina87%Sat 3 Oct
  115. Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4?: No97%Mon 5 Oct
  116. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  117. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No98%Mon 5 Oct
  118. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova84%Mon 26 Oct
  119. Croatia vs. England: England73%Sat 3 Oct
  120. Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  121. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić63%Sun 25 Oct
  122. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ99%Tue 6 Oct
  123. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No59%Sat 3 Oct
  124. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud53%Wed 28 Oct
  125. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: No97%Tue 20 Oct
  126. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?: No83%Sat 31 Oct
  127. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)85%Sun 4 Oct
  128. Elon Musk # tweets October 1 - October 3, 2026?: 65-8950%Sat 3 Oct
  129. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas69%Mon 5 Oct
  130. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?: Yes64%Sun 1 Nov
  131. Iran leadership change by October 31?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  132. Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?: No86%Sun 1 Nov
  133. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga88%Mon 5 Oct
  134. Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?: Yes79%Sat 31 Oct
  135. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?: Yes74%Sun 1 Nov
  136. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?: No84%Sat 31 Oct
  137. Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?: 220-23934%Tue 6 Oct
  138. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis84%Mon 5 Oct
  139. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes78%Mon 5 Oct
  140. India vs. Brazil: Brazil76%Sat 3 Oct
  141. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?: No75%Sat 31 Oct
  142. Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?: No84%Sun 1 Nov
  143. Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?: No84%Sun 1 Nov
  144. Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage: PARIVISION57%Sat 3 Oct
  145. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro72%Mon 5 Oct
  146. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2434%Wed 28 Oct
  147. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  148. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas100%Mon 5 Oct
  149. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry64%Sun 18 Oct
  150. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia65%Sun 25 Oct
  151. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues64%Mon 5 Oct
  152. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco87%Mon 5 Oct
  153. Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C: G2 Esports53%Sat 3 Oct
  154. France United Left Primary Winner: Canceled98%Mon 12 Oct
  155. Spread: Burkina Faso (-5.5): Argentina99%Sat 3 Oct
  156. WNBA: 2026 Champion: Las Vegas Aces31%Sat 31 Oct
  157. Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?: No94%Sun 1 Nov
  158. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite59%Mon 5 Oct
  159. # of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?: 30–35M99%Sat 3 Oct
  160. Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?: No99%Thu 22 Oct
  161. San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee Brewers60%Sun 11 Oct
  162. Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?: Yes70%Tue 13 Oct
  163. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy): No82%Sat 31 Oct
  164. NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?: No100%Fri 23 Oct
  165. Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club69%Wed 21 Oct
  166. Bitcoin price on October 3?: 84,000-86,00056%Sat 3 Oct
  167. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS99%Sun 4 Oct
  168. Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Vancouver Whitecaps FC65%Wed 7 Oct
  169. Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?: Yes60%Fri 9 Oct
  170. Argentina vs. Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso O/U 5.5: Under89%Sat 3 Oct
  171. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  172. Cardinals vs. Giants: Cardinals53%Sun 4 Oct
  173. Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?: Down92%Sat 3 Oct
  174. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado51%Mon 5 Oct
  175. Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?: No93%Sun 1 Nov
  176. Pernambuco Governor Election Winner: João Campos56%Mon 5 Oct
  177. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  178. Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Chidekh vs Harold Mayot: Clement Chidekh100%Fri 9 Oct
  179. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon97%Tue 6 Oct
  180. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi: Carlos Alcaraz96%Sat 10 Oct
  181. Piauí Governor Election Winner: Rafael Fonteles100%Mon 5 Oct
  182. Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2: Mayweather51%Sun 4 Oct
  183. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes98%Sat 31 Oct
  184. Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026: Yes97%Sun 1 Nov
  185. Bank of Japan Decision in October?: No change81%Fri 30 Oct
  186. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  187. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?: No97%Sun 1 Nov
  188. Jingshan: Lloyd Harris vs Alex Bolt: Lloyd Harris100%Sat 10 Oct
  189. Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place: Rui Costa93%Mon 5 Oct
  190. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%42%Thu 15 Oct
  191. Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 28-October 4?: No89%Mon 5 Oct
  192. Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?: No71%Sun 1 Nov
  193. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  194. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Deltan Dallagnol66%Mon 5 Oct
  195. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?: No90%Sun 1 Nov
  196. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?: No94%Fri 16 Oct
  197. Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?: 1000+28%Sun 1 Nov
  198. Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee: Raphael Glucksmann82%Sat 10 Oct
  199. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?: No98%Sun 1 Nov
  200. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No98%Tue 6 Oct
  201. Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  202. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?: Yes71%Sun 1 Nov
  203. Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026: Elmano de Freitas65%Sun 4 Oct
  204. Russia vs. Namibia: Russia75%Sat 3 Oct
  205. Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  206. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?: No99%Sun 1 Nov
  207. LoL: Team Vitality vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage: BNK FEARX69%Sat 3 Oct
  208. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 3?: No93%Sat 3 Oct
  209. Bank of Russia decision in October?: No Change84%Sat 24 Oct
  210. Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?: No95%Sun 1 Nov
  211. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow87%Tue 27 Oct
  212. Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Slaven Kovačević61%Mon 5 Oct
  213. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe91%Tue 27 Oct
  214. Spread: Rams (-3.5): Eagles52%Sun 4 Oct
  215. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?: No92%Sat 31 Oct
  216. # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?: 35–40M29%Tue 6 Oct
  217. Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 September 28-October 4?: No98%Mon 5 Oct
  218. Netherlands vs. Serbia: Netherlands77%Sun 4 Oct
  219. Italy vs. Türkiye: Italy69%Mon 5 Oct
  220. Asian Games Men: Pakistan vs India: India95%Sat 10 Oct
  221. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026?: No71%Sat 3 Oct
  222. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 4?: No98%Sun 4 Oct
  223. Kentucky vs. South Carolina: South Carolina55%Sat 3 Oct
  224. Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October?: Yes73%Sun 1 Nov
  225. Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 49.5: Over61%Sun 4 Oct
  226. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes80%Wed 28 Oct
  227. UFC 332: Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev (Middleweight, Early Prelims): Ismail Naurdiev55%Sun 4 Oct
  228. Amazonas Senate Election: 1st Place: Eduardo Braga64%Mon 5 Oct
  229. Spread: Alabama (-5.5): Alabama59%Sat 3 Oct
  230. Spread: Lions (-3.5): Lions51%Mon 5 Oct
  231. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 166%Tue 27 Oct
  232. Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5: Under57%Sun 4 Oct
  233. FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United SC: FC Cincinnati64%Wed 21 Oct
  234. Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?: No88%Sun 1 Nov
  235. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District: Flavio Bolsonaro98%Mon 5 Oct
  236. Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 28-October 4?: No95%Mon 5 Oct
  237. If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?: No91%Sat 31 Oct
  238. Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 September 28-October 4?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  239. Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place: Jaques Wagner89%Mon 5 Oct
  240. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 3?: No70%Sat 3 Oct
  241. Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5: Over54%Mon 5 Oct
  242. Spread: USC (-9.5): Washington51%Sat 3 Oct
  243. Portugal vs. Norway: Portugal64%Sun 4 Oct
  244. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?: 44%+67%Sun 4 Oct
  245. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: No70%Thu 15 Oct
  246. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  247. Spread: Vikings (-3.5): Vikings53%Sun 4 Oct
  248. Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place: Marília Arraes80%Mon 5 Oct
  249. Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?: No98%Sat 31 Oct
  250. Greece vs. Germany: Germany68%Sun 4 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.