44%ECB, Japan and Colombia kept rates unchanged in October59%Olivia Chow won Toronto Mayoral race35%Yashar party won Israeli election, Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister44%US headline CPI rose 0.3% in September51%China Open sees Zheng, Charaeva, Rinderknech and Volynets advance96%Drake missed September album deadline while Swift and Langley took #2 spots76%Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier76%Spider-Man 4 out-earned Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 combined58%Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil's 2026 Presidential election65%Liberal Party won most Senate seats and the Chamber of Deputies90%Lula lost presidential race as Bolsonaro remained in Brazil34%Muse topped iPhone App Store on October 1

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Thursday, 1 October 2026
Edition of Saturday, 31 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Thu 1 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Saturday, 31 October 2026.

Economics

ECB, Japan and Colombia kept rates unchanged in October

The ECB, Bank of Japan and Colombia's Central Bank left rates unchanged on Friday, and Israel's Bank held rates steady earlier this week.

44% certain
lead market 44%next 30%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Oct

On Friday 30 October the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and Colombia's Central Bank all announced no Change to their policy rates. Earlier in the week, on Wednesday 21 October, the Bank of Israel also kept its rate unchanged.

The European Central Bank's governing council met on 30 October and confirmed that the deposit, main refinancing and marginal lending rates remained at their existing levels. The unchanged stance maintained the current cost of borrowing for Eurozone banks.

Read the full report

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro58%Mon 5 Oct
  2. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot47%Wed 28 Oct
  3. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No61%Sat 3 Oct
  4. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro69%Mon 5 Oct
  5. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ96%Tue 6 Oct
  6. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 180-19934%Fri 2 Oct
  7. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No76%Sat 3 Oct
  8. Will Muse rank #1 in App Store (iPhone) on October 1st 2026: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  9. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  10. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar58%Wed 28 Oct
  11. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL97%Mon 5 Oct
  12. China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Han Shi: Qinwen Zheng100%Thu 8 Oct
  13. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change90%Fri 30 Oct
  14. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis83%Mon 5 Oct
  15. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2435%Wed 28 Oct
  16. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  17. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No100%Tue 27 Oct
  18. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry64%Sun 18 Oct
  19. China Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Alina Charaeva: Alina Charaeva94%Wed 7 Oct
  20. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite77%Mon 5 Oct
  21. # of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?: 30–35M73%Sat 3 Oct
  22. Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change63%Wed 28 Oct
  23. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL65%Mon 5 Oct
  24. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  25. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado67%Mon 5 Oct
  26. China Open: Alex Molcan vs Arthur Rinderknech: Arthur Rinderknech51%Thu 8 Oct
  27. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  28. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon94%Tue 6 Oct
  29. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe91%Tue 27 Oct
  30. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow88%Tue 27 Oct
  31. Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?: No90%Sun 4 Oct
  32. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m92%Sun 4 Oct
  33. China Open: Katie Volynets vs Robin Montgomery: Katie Volynets100%Thu 8 Oct
  34. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%45%Thu 15 Oct
  35. Will Drake release a new album by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  36. Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change87%Wed 21 Oct
  37. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%50%Thu 15 Oct
  38. Lula participates in debate before first round?: No99%Sat 3 Oct
  39. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries63%Sun 18 Oct
  40. Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?: Yes96%Sun 4 Oct
  41. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham64%Thu 29 Oct
  42. #2 Spotify song in the US this week? (October 2): Cleveland! - Taylor Swift97%Fri 2 Oct
  43. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard59%Sun 18 Oct
  44. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes94%Wed 28 Oct
  45. "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office: 28m+76%Sun 4 Oct
  46. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke78%Sun 18 Oct
  47. Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change44%Fri 30 Oct
  48. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%56%Thu 15 Oct
  49. Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No89%Mon 5 Oct
  50. Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Steven Del Duca92%Tue 27 Oct
  51. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti91%Tue 27 Oct
  52. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%44%Thu 15 Oct
  53. Digger · Rotten Tomatoes score: Above 4086%Fri 2 Oct
  54. September Inflation China - Annual: 0.9% to 1.0%60%Wed 14 Oct
  55. Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 10: Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley96%Wed 7 Oct
  56. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+87%Fri 16 Oct
  57. Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026: No change83%Fri 30 Oct
  58. Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? : No94%Sat 31 Oct
  59. Ballon d'Or Winner 2026: Lamine Yamal43%Sat 31 Oct
  60. Fed Decision in October?: No change65%Thu 29 Oct
  61. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms17%Sat 10 Oct
  62. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  63. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  64. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  65. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No95%Fri 2 Oct
  66. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  67. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  68. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No91%Tue 6 Oct
  69. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  70. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No96%Fri 30 Oct
  71. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos52%Mon 5 Oct
  72. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro56%Fri 2 Oct
  73. Wales vs. Norway: Norway74%Thu 1 Oct
  74. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes80%Wed 28 Oct
  75. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  76. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  77. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  78. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  79. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  80. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 1?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  81. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  82. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  83. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  84. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  85. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%56%Mon 5 Oct
  86. Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days: No95%Mon 5 Oct
  87. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: Yes53%Thu 15 Oct
  88. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No52%Mon 19 Oct
  89. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No73%Wed 21 Oct
  90. Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  91. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes58%Thu 1 Oct
  92. Greece vs. Netherlands: Netherlands64%Thu 1 Oct
  93. Will random.org pick 100,000?: No99%Tue 6 Oct
  94. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Mon 5 Oct
  95. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No96%Mon 5 Oct
  96. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova79%Mon 26 Oct
  97. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula69%Mon 5 Oct
  98. Denmark vs. Portugal: Portugal67%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  100. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić68%Sun 25 Oct
  101. Will national gas prices in the US average above $3.60: Yes98%Fri 30 Oct
  102. Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks?: No92%Sat 10 Oct
  103. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo91%Mon 5 Oct
  105. Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No87%Tue 20 Oct
  106. Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?: No95%Sat 24 Oct
  107. Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  108. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)84%Sun 4 Oct
  109. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026?: Yes51%Mon 5 Oct
  110. Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?: Yes93%Mon 5 Oct
  111. Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?: No92%Sun 25 Oct
  112. Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?: No93%Sun 11 Oct
  113. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: No97%Tue 20 Oct
  114. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?: No96%Wed 21 Oct
  116. Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?: Yes88%Mon 5 Oct
  117. Spain vs. Czechia: Spain72%Sat 3 Oct
  118. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes71%Thu 1 Oct
  119. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas68%Mon 5 Oct
  120. China PR vs. Turkmenistan: Draw (China PR vs. Turkmenistan)68%Fri 2 Oct
  121. SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).: No51%Sat 10 Oct
  122. Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  123. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  124. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No92%Mon 5 Oct
  125. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro79%Mon 5 Oct
  126. Claude Haiku dying in 3 months?: No95%Sat 17 Oct
  127. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes68%Mon 5 Oct
  128. Germany vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5: Over72%Thu 1 Oct
  129. Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No88%Tue 20 Oct
  130. Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?: Yes79%Fri 9 Oct
  131. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga92%Mon 5 Oct
  132. WNBA: 2026 Champion: Atlanta Dream26%Sat 31 Oct
  133. Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?: No84%Wed 21 Oct
  134. Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No79%Tue 20 Oct
  135. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: Stefanos Tsitsipas100%Wed 7 Oct
  136. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia63%Sun 25 Oct
  137. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3000 or more on October 5 2026?: Yes97%Mon 5 Oct
  138. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4200 or more on October 5 2026?: No78%Sun 4 Oct
  139. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+90%Sun 4 Oct
  140. Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes98%Mon 5 Oct
  141. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco87%Mon 5 Oct
  142. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues62%Mon 5 Oct
  143. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%42%Sun 4 Oct
  144. Maldives vs. Lebanon: Lebanon82%Thu 1 Oct
  145. Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?: No73%Sat 10 Oct
  146. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: Atlanta Braves51%Fri 9 Oct
  147. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: No60%Wed 28 Oct
  148. US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.3000 or more on October 5 2026?: Yes91%Mon 5 Oct
  149. Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?: No96%Sun 4 Oct
  150. Curitiba: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida100%Wed 7 Oct
  151. Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?: No99%Thu 22 Oct
  152. Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia: Australia100%Wed 7 Oct
  153. Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  154. Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?: Yes84%Wed 21 Oct
  155. NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?: No99%Fri 23 Oct
  156. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs: Jiri Lehecka86%Wed 7 Oct
  157. Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?: No99%Fri 2 Oct
  158. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS99%Sun 4 Oct
  159. Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club66%Wed 21 Oct
  160. Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  161. Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C: Team Liquid80%Thu 1 Oct
  162. Spread: Colts (-3.5): Colts53%Sun 4 Oct
  163. Will Trump win Nobel Piss Prize 2026? [Read description]: Yes86%Fri 16 Oct
  164. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  165. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: did not happen100%Mon 5 Oct
  166. Will Serie be alive at the end of the Foundation Festival arc?: Yes72%Thu 1 Oct
  167. Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Vancouver Whitecaps FC59%Wed 7 Oct
  168. Does Trump receive Ig Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?: No96%Fri 30 Oct
  169. When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: No release by November 175%Sun 4 Oct
  170. Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00: Yes99%Mon 5 Oct
  171. Will Calvin Wang submit the 21W.023 Discussion Post Homework on time? (Writing Advice from Stephen King): Yes58%Wed 7 Oct
  172. Will the Israeli government significantly undermine the next election?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  173. Within 1 year, will I think Claude Skills are a bigger deal than MCP?: Yes61%Sun 18 Oct
  174. Paraíba Governor Election Winner: Lucas Ribeiro93%Mon 5 Oct
  175. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás: Flavio Bolsonaro96%Mon 5 Oct
  176. Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2: Mayweather51%Sun 4 Oct
  177. Will Tesla announce on October 1, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second?: No71%Sat 3 Oct
  178. LoL: South Korea vs Saudi Arabia - Game 1 Winner: South Korea100%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Bitcoin price on October 1?: 84,000-86,00065%Thu 1 Oct
  180. Spread: Browns (-3.5): Steelers54%Fri 2 Oct
  181. NFL Week 4: Will the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the Los Angeles Rams by 3 or more points in Week 4?: No62%Sun 4 Oct
  182. Bank of Japan Decision in October?: No change83%Fri 30 Oct
  183. Pernambuco Governor Election Winner: João Campos52%Mon 5 Oct
  184. Maranhão Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Braide90%Mon 5 Oct
  185. Will Labour win the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: Yes83%Thu 8 Oct
  186. Colts vs. Commanders: Colts63%Sun 4 Oct
  187. Jingshan: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Kyoka Okamura: Kyoka Okamura87%Wed 7 Oct
  188. LoL: South Korea vs Saudi Arabia (BO3) - Asian Games Playoffs: South Korea100%Thu 1 Oct
  189. Will LeBron retire before the 2026 season: No99%Tue 20 Oct
  190. Will Lucy Martinez travel to Thailand before October 31, 2026?: No77%Fri 30 Oct
  191. Next Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Denis Bećirović79%Mon 5 Oct
  192. Will Übel figure out a way to cut through her ropes?: Yes81%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Roraima Senate Election: 2nd Place: Nicoletti54%Mon 5 Oct
  194. Will Russia attack Europe with drones before October 31?: No74%Fri 30 Oct
  195. Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place: Deltan Dallagnol59%Mon 5 Oct
  196. Daily Coinflip: Yes50%Fri 2 Oct
  197. 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?: No66%Tue 27 Oct
  198. Federal District Senate Election: 1st Place: Michelle Bolsonaro95%Mon 5 Oct
  199. Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Oct 1 UTC-12?: No85%Thu 1 Oct
  200. Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 2, 2026? (Closes early): No51%Fri 2 Oct
  201. Elected Governor of Ceará in 2026: Elmano de Freitas65%Sun 4 Oct
  202. Will Friedrich Merz cease to be chancellor before 14th October 2026?: No97%Tue 13 Oct
  203. Bank of Russia decision in October?: No Change86%Sat 24 Oct
  204. Belgium vs. Türkiye: Belgium58%Fri 2 Oct
  205. Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE): No86%Thu 8 Oct
  206. Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21): No97%Wed 21 Oct
  207. Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage: PARIVISION52%Sat 3 Oct
  208. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello100%Mon 5 Oct
  209. Will our Steam game Heartseeker surpass 1000 sales by Oct 5th 2026 (5th anniversary of release)?: No90%Tue 6 Oct
  210. Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin?: No98%Tue 20 Oct
  211. Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Roraima Senate Election: 1st Place: Teresa Surita64%Mon 5 Oct
  213. Counter-Strike: BIG vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: BIG63%Thu 1 Oct
  214. Will there be mass protests on Oct 14, 2026 in the USA?: No94%Wed 14 Oct
  215. Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?: 180-19940%Fri 9 Oct
  216. Goiás Governor Election Winner: Daniel Vilela97%Mon 5 Oct
  217. Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No100%Mon 5 Oct
  218. France vs. Italy: France67%Fri 2 Oct
  219. Will I get a 43+ predicted IB score?: Yes64%Sun 4 Oct
  220. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL95%Mon 5 Oct
  221. Asian Games Men: India vs Sri Lanka: India92%Thu 8 Oct
  222. Will I find someone from Manifold Markets to do flat viewings for me in London?: No88%Wed 7 Oct
  223. Janja Garnbret climbs Burden of Dreams by 23 October 2026?: No88%Fri 23 Oct
  224. Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Jordy44%Mon 5 Oct
  225. Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: No99%Mon 5 Oct
  226. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place: Domingos Sávio57%Mon 5 Oct
  227. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place: Carlos Viana36%Mon 5 Oct
  228. 🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win the most seats in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election?: Yes88%Fri 23 Oct
  229. Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place: Marcel Van Hattem80%Mon 5 Oct
  230. Will this market close below 50%?: No51%Mon 5 Oct
  231. Quebec General Election: Second Place: PLQ88%Tue 6 Oct
  232. FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United SC: FC Cincinnati68%Wed 21 Oct
  233. Acre Governor Election Winner: Mailza Assis71%Mon 5 Oct
  234. Is Val going to attend The Strotes wedding?: No54%Sun 18 Oct
  235. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%48%Fri 30 Oct
  236. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe: Frances Tiafoe93%Wed 7 Oct
  237. Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?: No68%Thu 1 Oct
  238. Croatia vs. England: England60%Sat 3 Oct
  239. China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?: 4.3-4.6%61%Tue 20 Oct
  240. Will there be at least 1 death due to political unrest on Oct 14, 2026 in the USA?: No94%Wed 14 Oct
  241. Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Darijana Filipović57%Mon 5 Oct
  242. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais: Lula79%Mon 5 Oct
  243. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.0-1.2%59%Fri 30 Oct
  244. Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 2?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  245. Will the winner of Labour's Deputy Leadership contest become Deputy Prime Minister within one year?: No94%Mon 26 Oct
  246. W15 Maanshan: Ha Yoon Son vs Darja Suvirdjonkova: Ha Yoon Son100%Wed 7 Oct
  247. Elected Senators for Ceará in 2026: Cid Gomes52%Sun 4 Oct
  248. Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?: No74%Thu 15 Oct
  249. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District: Flavio Bolsonaro97%Mon 5 Oct
  250. Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place: Sanderson64%Mon 5 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.