48%ECB left rates unchanged as Eurozone grew modestly60%Olivia Chow won Toronto mayoralty in 2026 municipal elections37%Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister after Yashar's surprise win65%Israel and Saudi Arabia failed to establish diplomatic ties54%Bank of Russia left policy unchanged as NATO downed Russian drone27%Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize33%September 2026 CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month51%Sinja Kraus won China Open match over Maya Joint82%Spider-Man 4 out-earned Toy Story 5 and Scream 7 combined38%Bitcoin stayed above $80,000 and hit $85,000 in September58%Tarcísio de Freitas won São Paulo governorship43%Lula won Brazil's Presidential election in the first round

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Edition of Friday, 30 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Wed 30 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Friday, 30 October 2026.

Economics

ECB left rates unchanged as Eurozone grew modestly

Germany posted about 1% expansion in Q3 while the Eurozone expanded between 0.8% and 1.1%.

48% certain
lead market 48%next 26%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Oct

On Friday the European Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged, citing the latest data that showed the euro area economy grew modestly in the third quarter. The latest estimate placed Eurozone GDP growth between 0.8% and 1.1%. Germany, the bloc's largest economy, recorded growth between 1.0% and 1.2% in the same period.

The Governing Council met in Frankfurt and left the main refinancing rate at its current level. No adjustment was made despite ongoing debates about inflation and monetary tightening.

Read the full report

Politics

PL won most Senate seats and Chamber of Deputies

The Liberal Party secured the top spot in both chambers, while Bia Kicis placed second in the Federal District Senate race.

62% certain
lead market 62%next 16%1 venuesettles Mon 5 Oct

Science

OpenAI missed top LiveBench ranking

The firm also failed to secure the best AI Agent slot and announced no new Millennium Prize solution.

93% certain
lead market 93%next 7%1 venuesettles Wed 30 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot46%Wed 28 Oct
  2. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms27%Sat 10 Oct
  3. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro72%Mon 5 Oct
  4. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  5. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  6. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  7. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  8. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  9. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  10. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  11. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  12. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  13. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  14. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  15. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No90%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  17. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  18. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  20. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  21. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  22. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  23. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos51%Mon 5 Oct
  24. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  25. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  26. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  27. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  28. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes98%Thu 1 Oct
  29. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  30. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  31. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  32. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  33. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  34. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  35. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%55%Mon 5 Oct
  36. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  37. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No94%Wed 30 Sept
  38. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  39. Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar57%Wed 28 Oct
  40. São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas99%Mon 5 Oct
  41. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo94%Mon 5 Oct
  42. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  43. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  44. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)84%Sun 4 Oct
  45. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  46. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  47. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL99%Mon 5 Oct
  48. China Open: Maya Joint vs Sinja Kraus: Sinja Kraus100%Wed 7 Oct
  49. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  50. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes81%Mon 5 Oct
  51. Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas66%Mon 5 Oct
  52. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 1?: Yes92%Thu 1 Oct
  53. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro82%Mon 5 Oct
  54. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  55. Jingshan: Elias Ymer vs Terence Atmane: Elias Ymer100%Wed 7 Oct
  56. Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?: No97%Mon 26 Oct
  57. ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change79%Fri 30 Oct
  58. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry62%Sun 18 Oct
  59. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  60. Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-2437%Wed 28 Oct
  61. Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  62. Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?: Yes99%Fri 2 Oct
  63. China Open: Janice Tjen vs Anhelina Kalinina: Janice Tjen100%Wed 7 Oct
  64. Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues58%Mon 5 Oct
  65. Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?: No89%Mon 5 Oct
  66. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%43%Sun 4 Oct
  67. Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco78%Mon 5 Oct
  68. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?: 39%+86%Sun 4 Oct
  69. Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?: No88%Mon 5 Oct
  70. Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?: No100%Tue 27 Oct
  71. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis80%Mon 5 Oct
  72. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy Paul: Alejandro Tabilo100%Wed 7 Oct
  73. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL65%Mon 5 Oct
  74. LoL: Solary vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: Solary71%Wed 30 Sept
  75. Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner : Jorginho Mello99%Mon 5 Oct
  76. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite70%Mon 5 Oct
  77. Will the date for the next Israeli legislative election be postponed?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  78. What price will Bitcoin hit in September 2026?: Reach $85,00038%Thu 1 Oct
  79. Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  80. Spread: Colts (-3.5): Colts56%Sun 4 Oct
  81. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado62%Mon 5 Oct
  82. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes81%Wed 30 Sept
  83. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner: Mark Sutcliffe89%Tue 27 Oct
  84. LoL: T1 Academy vs Galions (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs: T1 Academy60%Wed 30 Sept
  85. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  86. Japan Open Tennis Championships: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergs: Jiri Lehecka80%Wed 7 Oct
  87. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%52%Thu 15 Oct
  88. Valorant: Team Vitality vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B: LOUD54%Wed 30 Sept
  89. Bank of Russia decision in October?: No Change86%Sat 24 Oct
  90. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: did not happen98%Thu 1 Oct
  91. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Olivia Chow88%Tue 27 Oct
  92. Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage: PARIVISION53%Sat 3 Oct
  93. China Open: Daria Snigur vs Katarzyna Kawa: Katarzyna Kawa62%Wed 7 Oct
  94. Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C: BetBoom Team75%Wed 30 Sept
  95. How many Israeli elections before government formed?: 163%Tue 27 Oct
  96. Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026: 0.8-1.1%48%Fri 30 Oct
  97. Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?: 1.0-1.2%59%Fri 30 Oct
  98. Will the Trump administration successfully overturn the Anthropic injunction on appeal by September 30, 2026?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  99. Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5): Solary63%Wed 30 Sept
  100. Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics?: Yes86%Sat 17 Oct
  101. Colts vs. Commanders: Colts65%Sun 4 Oct
  102. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  103. "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office: <17m82%Sun 4 Oct
  104. Surrey Mayoral Election: Brenda Locke75%Sun 18 Oct
  105. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Zac de Vries63%Sun 18 Oct
  106. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%50%Thu 15 Oct
  107. NFL Week 4: Will the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the Los Angeles Rams by 3 or more points in Week 4?: No65%Sun 4 Oct
  108. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic99%Thu 1 Oct
  109. Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner: Yangon Galacticos99%Wed 30 Sept
  110. LoL: Hong Kong vs South Korea (BO1) - Asian Games Group B: South Korea100%Wed 30 Sept
  111. China Open: Mayar Sherif vs Polina Kudermetova: Polina Kudermetova51%Wed 7 Oct
  112. NFL Week 4: Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Cleveland Browns by 3 or more points on Thursday Night Football?: Yes51%Fri 2 Oct
  113. Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs: B856%Thu 1 Oct
  114. Winnipeg Mayoral Election: Scott Gillingham61%Thu 29 Oct
  115. Richmond Mayoral Election: Rob Howard60%Sun 18 Oct
  116. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?: Yes94%Wed 28 Oct
  117. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?: No99%Fri 2 Oct
  118. Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?: No94%Mon 5 Oct
  119. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: did not happen99%Wed 30 Sept
  120. Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner: Mike O'Reilly66%Sun 18 Oct
  121. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner: Frank Scarpitti91%Tue 27 Oct
  122. Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 150k?: Yes91%Fri 2 Oct
  123. Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?: No72%Thu 8 Oct
  124. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%41%Thu 15 Oct
  125. US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?: Yes79%Fri 9 Oct
  126. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%95%Thu 15 Oct
  127. Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?: Yes70%Mon 12 Oct
  128. PPI YoY - September 2026: 5.9%+33%Fri 16 Oct
  129. Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?: No83%Thu 8 Oct
  130. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?: No84%Thu 8 Oct
  131. Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?: No65%Fri 16 Oct
  132. Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?: No59%Fri 9 Oct
  133. NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15?: Yes54%Thu 15 Oct
  134. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro57%Mon 5 Oct
  135. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No58%Sat 3 Oct
  136. Fed Decision in October?: No change55%Thu 29 Oct
  137. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  138. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  139. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  140. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  141. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes97%Wed 30 Sept
  142. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  143. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  144. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  145. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  146. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  147. will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]: No99%Wed 28 Oct
  148. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  149. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  150. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No84%Tue 6 Oct
  151. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  152. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro53%Fri 2 Oct
  153. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  154. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  155. Will a non-MF group be proved this month?: Yes79%Wed 28 Oct
  156. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  157. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  158. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  159. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  160. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Xiaomi96%Wed 30 Sept
  161. Clarity Act will pass in September: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  162. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  164. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  165. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  166. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  167. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  168. Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?: Yes71%Wed 28 Oct
  169. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ96%Tue 6 Oct
  170. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA100%Thu 1 Oct
  171. Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  172. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova79%Mon 26 Oct
  173. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No51%Mon 19 Oct
  174. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No77%Wed 21 Oct
  175. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?: Yes97%Mon 5 Oct
  176. Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  177. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  178. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes59%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  180. Will Anthropic’s IPO S-1 be public by 16 October 2026?: Yes53%Thu 15 Oct
  181. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: Philadelphia Phillies54%Wed 7 Oct
  182. Next Prime Minister of Serbia?: Aleksandar Vučić69%Sun 25 Oct
  183. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  184. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  185. Will random.org pick 100,000?: No99%Tue 6 Oct
  186. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  187. Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  188. Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  189. Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  190. Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days: No93%Mon 5 Oct
  191. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?: No94%Mon 5 Oct
  192. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 200-21929%Fri 2 Oct
  193. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  194. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  195. Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  196. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  197. Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  198. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No87%Tue 20 Oct
  200. Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?: No95%Sat 24 Oct
  201. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No77%Sat 3 Oct
  202. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  203. Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  204. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  205. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  206. Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?: No98%Tue 27 Oct
  207. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  208. Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: No97%Tue 20 Oct
  209. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  210. Will Muse rank #1 in App Store (iPhone) on October 1st 2026: Yes89%Thu 1 Oct
  211. Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?: Yes93%Mon 5 Oct
  212. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  213. Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?: No92%Sun 25 Oct
  214. Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?: No96%Wed 21 Oct
  215. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No70%Wed 30 Sept
  216. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  217. Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  218. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: No70%Thu 1 Oct
  219. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS97%Sun 4 Oct
  220. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga87%Mon 5 Oct
  221. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  222. Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  223. Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  224. China PR vs. Turkmenistan: Draw (China PR vs. Turkmenistan)71%Fri 2 Oct
  225. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  226. Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?: No89%Sun 11 Oct
  227. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No100%Wed 30 Sept
  228. Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  229. Will I stay in masters this season?: Yes71%Thu 1 Oct
  230. Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  231. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes66%Thu 1 Oct
  232. US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — August 2026: Exactly 3.2%52%Wed 30 Sept
  233. Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  234. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  235. Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  236. Denmark vs. Portugal: Portugal52%Thu 1 Oct
  237. Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  238. SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).: No51%Sat 10 Oct
  239. Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Will I get called "sir" more than "ma'am" over the phone in September?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  241. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  243. Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No88%Tue 20 Oct
  244. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  245. Next Premier of Quebec: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon95%Tue 6 Oct
  246. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  247. Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  248. Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  249. Will I weigh >150lbs at the end of September?: Yes67%Wed 30 Sept
  250. Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?: Yes76%Fri 9 Oct
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.