39%Fed held rates steady after September CPI rose 0.6%85%Parti Québécois won election, Liberal Party placed Second38%Liberal Party won most Senate seats in 2026 election51%OpenAI valuation plateaued just below $1 trillion64%U.S. economy avoided recession as 10-year yield stayed above 4.76%77%Key Middle Eastern chokepoints stayed disrupted, Oil traffic below normal95%Iran made no leadership or nuclear policy changes by September 202686%Anthropic topped AI benchmarks and landed first enterprise client99%China avoided Taiwan invasion and Xi returned safely87%Israel did not withdraw from Lebanon by end of September52%Ravens cover Cowboys in Sunday upset46%Avengers: Endgame Encore topped Weekend Box Office

AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 26 September 2026
Edition of Monday, 26 October 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 26 Sept · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Monday, 26 October 2026.

Economics

Fed held rates steady after September CPI rose 0.6%

September CPI climbed 0.6% month-over-month, annual inflation eased to 3.6% and Core prices rose 2.4%.

39% certain
lead market 39%next 33%1 venuesettles Thu 15 Oct

The Federal Reserve left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged on Friday. The decision followed the release of September price data that showed modest gains. The central bank also indicated that it would raise rates by a quarter-percentage point later in October.

The CPI-U figure reflected broader price pressures across the economy. The rise contributed to the Fed's assessment of inflation dynamics.

Read the full report

Sports

Ravens cover Cowboys in Sunday upset

Underdogs covered the Spread in multiple Sunday games and four contests finished under the total points line.

52% certain
lead market 52%next 48%1 venuesettles Sun 27 Sept

Culture

Avengers: Endgame Encore topped Weekend Box Office

Avengers: Endgame Encore led the Weekend Box Office while Heart of the Beast opened with $20-23 million and Primetime earned $16-19 million.

46% certain
lead market 46%next 35%1 venuesettles Sun 27 Sept

Everything settling ahead

The full slate behind this edition, whether or not it made the paper.

  1. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  2. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  3. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  4. Which company has the best AI model end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  5. Iran leadership change by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  6. US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  7. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  8. US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?: Yes90%Wed 30 Sept
  9. [ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?: No91%Wed 30 Sept
  10. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  11. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  12. Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  13. Quebec General Election Winner: PQ93%Mon 5 Oct
  14. Will Xi Jinping safely return to China after visiting the US?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  15. US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  16. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  17. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  18. Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?: No77%Thu 1 Oct
  19. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  20. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won: PL98%Sun 4 Oct
  21. Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  22. Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?: Anthropic96%Wed 30 Sept
  23. Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?: No100%Wed 30 Sept
  24. Spread: Lions (-6.5): Lions54%Sun 27 Sept
  25. Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  26. Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Chiefs65%Sun 27 Sept
  27. Spread: Seahawks (-7.5): Seahawks54%Sun 27 Sept
  28. "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office: 16-19m81%Sun 27 Sept
  29. Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  30. Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?: No98%Wed 30 Sept
  31. Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?: No85%Sat 3 Oct
  32. Spread: Bengals (-3.5): Steelers54%Sun 27 Sept
  33. Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5: Under60%Sun 27 Sept
  34. Jets vs. Lions: Lions62%Sun 27 Sept
  35. Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?: Anthropic94%Thu 1 Oct
  36. Spread: Bills (-7.5): Chargers53%Sun 27 Sept
  37. Did OpenAI just solve hodge??: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  38. Israel military action against Lebanon on September 29?: Yes87%Tue 29 Sept
  39. Next Premier of Quebec: did not happen96%Mon 5 Oct
  40. Bengals vs. Steelers: Bengals56%Sun 27 Sept
  41. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?: No100%Wed 30 Sept
  42. Spread: Chiefs (-10.5): Dolphins58%Sun 27 Sept
  43. Ravens vs. Cowboys: Ravens56%Sun 27 Sept
  44. Spread: Ravens (-3.5): Cowboys56%Sun 27 Sept
  45. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  46. Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5: Under59%Sun 27 Sept
  47. September Inflation US - Annual: 3.6%48%Thu 15 Oct
  48. People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?: No Change100%Wed 30 Sept
  49. Titans vs. Giants: O/U 38.5: Under56%Sun 27 Sept
  50. São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place: André do Prado67%Sun 4 Oct
  51. Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?: OpenAI94%Wed 30 Sept
  52. Spread: Panthers (-2.5): Browns57%Sun 27 Sept
  53. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of September?: Anthropic98%Thu 1 Oct
  54. Spread: Cowboys (-3.5): Ravens75%Sun 27 Sept
  55. Panthers vs. Browns: O/U 42.5: Under53%Sun 27 Sept
  56. Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?: OpenAI97%Wed 30 Sept
  57. Rams vs. Broncos: Rams59%Mon 28 Sept
  58. Spread: 49ers (-8.5): Cardinals59%Sun 27 Sept
  59. Texans vs. Colts: Texans53%Sun 27 Sept
  60. Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?: No89%Thu 1 Oct
  61. Patriots vs. Jaguars: Jaguars54%Sun 27 Sept
  62. Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On): Anthropic97%Wed 30 Sept
  63. Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held: PL98%Mon 5 Oct
  64. Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September?: Yes66%Wed 30 Sept
  65. Spread: Jaguars (-2.5): Jaguars54%Sun 27 Sept
  66. Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place: Bia Kicis55%Mon 5 Oct
  67. São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place: Guilherme Derrite86%Sun 4 Oct
  68. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?: Anthropic97%Wed 30 Sept
  69. Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place: Aécio Neves44%Sun 4 Oct
  70. Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?: Yes86%Wed 30 Sept
  71. Spread: Texans (-2.5): Colts52%Sun 27 Sept
  72. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  73. Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?: Yes95%Wed 14 Oct
  74. Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of September?: Anthropic99%Wed 30 Sept
  75. Quebec General Election: Second Place: PLQ87%Mon 5 Oct
  76. Acre Senate Election: 1st Place: Marcio Bittar38%Mon 5 Oct
  77. Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place: Rui Costa88%Mon 5 Oct
  78. Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place: Jaques Wagner86%Mon 5 Oct
  79. Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?: Anthropic98%Wed 30 Sept
  80. "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office: <13m80%Sun 27 Sept
  81. #1 Box Office This Weekend?: Avengers: Endgame Encore94%Sun 27 Sept
  82. September Inflation US - Monthly: 0.6%39%Thu 15 Oct
  83. "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office: 20-23m46%Sun 27 Sept
  84. OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?: $900B-$1.00T85%Wed 30 Sept
  85. US x China tariff agreement by September 30?: Yes88%Thu 1 Oct
  86. Core CPI YoY - September 2026: 2.4%47%Thu 15 Oct
  87. Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  88. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  89. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?: No54%Thu 1 Oct
  90. Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?: No92%Wed 30 Sept
  91. Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?: Yes51%Thu 1 Oct
  92. Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?: Yes64%Wed 30 Sept
  93. Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  94. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?: No80%Thu 1 Oct
  95. Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  96. Core CPI MoM - September 2026: 0.2%47%Thu 15 Oct
  97. Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  98. No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by October 15?: Yes50%Fri 16 Oct
  99. Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro54%Sun 4 Oct
  100. 🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027: No57%Sat 3 Oct
  101. Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms23%Sat 10 Oct
  102. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place: Flávio Bolsonaro74%Sun 4 Oct
  103. Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  104. Trump out as President by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  105. Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  106. Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?: Yes89%Fri 2 Oct
  107. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  108. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?: Yes98%Wed 7 Oct
  109. Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  110. Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?: No99%Thu 15 Oct
  111. Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?: No95%Thu 1 Oct
  112. Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?: Yes96%Wed 30 Sept
  113. Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  114. California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?: Yes96%Thu 1 Oct
  115. Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  116. Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?: No96%Fri 2 Oct
  117. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  118. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 26?: Yes93%Sat 26 Sept
  119. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  120. Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  121. Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?: Yes99%Thu 8 Oct
  122. Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  123. US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  124. Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?: No96%Wed 30 Sept
  125. Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?: Yes98%Wed 30 Sept
  126. Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?: Yes99%Tue 29 Sept
  127. Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes93%Wed 14 Oct
  128. Brazil’s Next President Elect: Flávio Bolsonaro50%Fri 2 Oct
  129. AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?: No81%Tue 6 Oct
  130. Best Chinese AI Company end of September?: Xiaomi84%Wed 30 Sept
  131. MLB: Home Runs Leader: Kyle Schwarber61%Sun 11 Oct
  132. Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  133. Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?: No83%Tue 29 Sept
  134. MLB: Runs Leader: Pete Crow-Armstrong90%Mon 28 Sept
  135. Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  136. England vs. Spain: Spain68%Sat 26 Sept
  137. Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?: Yes90%Wed 14 Oct
  138. Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  139. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?: No93%Thu 1 Oct
  140. Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll): No66%Tue 13 Oct
  141. Largest Company end of September?: NVIDIA100%Thu 1 Oct
  142. Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026?: No99%Sun 27 Sept
  143. Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece: No67%Sat 3 Oct
  144. US Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026?: Yes99%Mon 28 Sept
  145. Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  146. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  147. Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 200.00 USDC Base by September 28th 11:59 pm UTC: No94%Mon 28 Sept
  148. Clarity Act will pass in September: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  149. Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?: Yes99%Wed 30 Sept
  150. Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ] : No94%Wed 14 Oct
  151. Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  152. US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?: Yes99%Thu 1 Oct
  153. DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  154. MLB: ERA Leader: Jacob Misiorowski90%Mon 28 Sept
  155. Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?: No80%Wed 30 Sept
  156. Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  157. "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?: 950 - 960m98%Thu 1 Oct
  158. Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  159. MLB: Triples Leader: Corbin Carroll88%Fri 16 Oct
  160. Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  161. Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iliana Iotova72%Sun 25 Oct
  162. Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  163. Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026?: 160-17960%Tue 29 Sept
  164. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%60%Mon 5 Oct
  165. Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  166. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  167. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  168. MLB: Batting Average Leader: Yordan Alvarez91%Mon 28 Sept
  169. Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner: Cleitinho Azevedo95%Sun 4 Oct
  170. MLB: RBIs Leader: Pete Alonso37%Fri 16 Oct
  171. Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?: No83%Wed 21 Oct
  172. 2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?: No51%Mon 19 Oct
  173. Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No89%Tue 20 Oct
  174. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  175. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  176. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  177. Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?: Yes59%Thu 1 Oct
  178. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  179. Will Solana dip to $70 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  180. MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher: Dylan Cease20%Fri 16 Oct
  181. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  182. Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  183. Will Sanji be a confirmed Conqueror’s Haki User during the battle against the God's Knights on Elbaph?: Yes87%Wed 30 Sept
  184. MLB: Doubles Leader: Bryan Reynolds62%Sun 11 Oct
  185. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  186. Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?: No81%Thu 1 Oct
  187. Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?: No99%Wed 30 Sept
  188. Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  189. Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  190. Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  191. Will I remain in Montreal past September?: Yes93%Wed 30 Sept
  192. Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  193. Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner: Lula74%Mon 5 Oct
  194. Hegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 days: No85%Mon 5 Oct
  195. Elected Governor of Minas Gerais in 2026: Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos)84%Sun 4 Oct
  196. Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No87%Tue 20 Oct
  197. Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?: No96%Sat 24 Oct
  198. US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?: Yes97%Thu 1 Oct
  199. Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  200. Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?: No92%Thu 1 Oct
  201. Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  202. Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?: No96%Thu 1 Oct
  203. # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?: 70-80M91%Sat 26 Sept
  204. Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  205. Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Eduardo Paes85%Mon 5 Oct
  206. Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  207. Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?: No97%Sat 3 Oct
  208. Will a US senator die before October 1st?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
  209. Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  210. Will somebody use my Bilt referral link before end of Sep 2026?: Yes92%Wed 30 Sept
  211. Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  212. Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  213. Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?: Yes93%Mon 5 Oct
  214. Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  215. will Kalorm survive to the end of 'to face the death you're never that far from' (includes both true death and cryo): Yes95%Wed 30 Sept
  216. Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  217. Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?: No98%Thu 1 Oct
  218. Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?: No96%Wed 21 Oct
  219. Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner: Pete Fry84%Sun 18 Oct
  220. Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?: No94%Sun 25 Oct
  221. US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?: Yes59%Mon 28 Sept
  222. Paraná Governor Election Winner: Sergio Moro85%Mon 5 Oct
  223. Korea Open: Taylah Preston vs Alina Korneeva: Alina Korneeva100%Fri 2 Oct
  224. Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month: No97%Wed 30 Sept
  225. Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?: No99%Thu 1 Oct
  226. Trump renames AI by September 30?: No82%Thu 1 Oct
  227. US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?: No89%Wed 30 Sept
  228. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?: No94%Thu 1 Oct
  229. How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?: 2–6s99%Thu 8 Oct
  230. Lima Mayoral Election Winner: Rafael López Aliaga70%Mon 5 Oct
  231. Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?: No91%Thu 1 Oct
  232. US airstrikes Yemen in September?: No88%Wed 30 Sept
  233. Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September: No64%Wed 30 Sept
  234. Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  235. Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?: 180-19919%Fri 2 Oct
  236. Swiss federal Neutrality Initiative passes: No95%Tue 29 Sept
  237. Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?: No97%Thu 1 Oct
  238. US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?: No65%Thu 1 Oct
  239. Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  240. Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in September?: No100%Thu 1 Oct
  241. Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.: Yes69%Thu 1 Oct
  242. Will a manifolder report on the Oreo chicken burger in the next month?: No89%Sat 26 Sept
  243. Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?: No86%Sun 11 Oct
  244. Ole Miss vs. Florida: Florida59%Sat 26 Sept
  245. Will Trump outlive DeSantis?: No93%Wed 30 Sept
  246. MLB: Most Home Runs (Team): New York Yankees82%Mon 12 Oct
  247. Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner: Pam Alexis70%Sat 26 Sept
  248. Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?: No90%Tue 20 Oct
  249. SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).: No51%Sat 10 Oct
  250. Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?: No95%Wed 30 Sept
Nothing here has happened. Every story is written from prediction-market prices for events that settle within a month, then reported as though they already had.