Politics
Swedish Social Democratic party wins most seats
Sweden Democrats come second
Monday, 21 September 2026
50%
certain
lead market 50%next 38%1 venuesettles Sun 13 Sept8 markets behind this
The Swedish Social Democratic Party won the most seats in the Swedish Parliamentary election, with the Sweden Democrats coming in second.
The Christian Democrats Will remain in the Riksdag after the election.
The Moderate Party came in third.
The next Prime Minister of Sweden is likely to be Magdalena Andersson.
The Sweden Democrats may not have increased their share in parliament, despite coming in second.
Analysis
The outcome of the election means that the Swedish Social Democratic Party Will have a significant influence on the country's politics.
The Sweden Democrats' second Place finish could lead to them having more power in the Riksdag, depending on the final seat count.
The Christian Democrats' continued presence in the Riksdag ensures that they Will still have a voice in Swedish politics.
The result of the election may lead to changes in the country's government, with Magdalena Andersson potentially becoming the next Prime Minister, and the Sweden Democrats potentially playing a larger role.
Background consulted for the analysis
What this was built from
Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.
Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?: Yes, 88%
settles Saturday, 12 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?: did not happen, 63%
settles Monday, 21 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson, 76%
settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), 98%
settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?: did not happen, 50%
settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 · manifold · see the market
Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+, 50%
settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Moderate Party (M), 71%
settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place: Sweden Democrats (SD), 77%
settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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