AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 11 October 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 10 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sun 11 Oct · not a record of events

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Politics

Likud won the 2026 Israeli election with 20-24 seats

Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister following Likud's victory

39% certain
lead market 39%next 30%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct3 markets behind this

On Wednesday 28 October, Likud was declared the winner of Israel's 2026 Legislative election. The party secured between twenty and twenty-four seats in the 120-member Knesset. Following the result, Gadi Eizenkot was identified as the forthcoming Prime Minister

The determination of the winner was completed on Wednesday. Likud outperformed rivals Yashar, Otzma Yehudit and the Democrats. The outcome confirmed Likud as the leading party in the Knesset.

The final count allocated Likud between twenty and twenty-four seats. The seat range was reported alongside the election results on Wednesday. This tally kept Likud below the twenty-five seat threshold noted in alternative scenarios.

Gadi Eizenkot was identified as the Prime Minister after the election. The decision excluded Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman from the premiership. The designation was finalized on the same Wednesday as the election result.

Analysis

Winning with only twenty to twenty-four seats means Likud will need partners to reach a governing majority, as the Knesset requires at least sixty-one seats. The modest size of its bloc limits its bargaining power and forces it to negotiate concessions with smaller factions. How those negotiations unfold will shape the composition of the next government.

Eizenkot, a former military chief, brings a background that may influence security and diplomatic priorities. Nonetheless, his ability to implement a agenda will depend on the stability of any coalition he assembles.

Parties excluded from the premiership, such as Yashar, Otzma Yehudit, the Democrats, and the previously dominant figures, may become kingmakers.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot, 42% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Likud, 50% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: 20-24, 39% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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