AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Sunday, 11 October 2026
Edition of Tuesday, 10 November 2026

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Economics

Major Central banks left rates unchanged in October

The ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of Israel and Colombia's Central Bank all kept policy rates steady in October.

62% certain
lead market 62%next 30%1 venuesettles Fri 30 Oct5 markets behind this

On Friday 30 October, the European Central Bank announced that its policy rate would remain unchanged. The same day, the Bank of Japan and Colombia's Central Bank also kept their rates steady. Earlier in the month, on Wednesday 21 October, the Bank of Israel likewise left its policy rate unchanged.

The ECB's Governing Council chose not to adjust the main refinancing rate, maintaining the level set in previous meetings. The decision reflected the Bank's assessment of inflation trends across the euro area.

In Tokyo, the Bank of Japan's policy board decided to keep its short-term Interest rate unchanged. The move signaled continuity in Japan's monetary approach amid persistent price pressures.

The Bank of Israel's Monetary Committee met on 21 October and left its benchmark rate unchanged. The committee had evaluated both upward and downward adjustments before concluding that the current level best supported the economy. The decision came as the Israeli shekel showed relative stability against major currencies.

Colombia's Central Bank also announced on 30 October that its policy rate would stay at the existing level. The board rejected proposals for a 25-basis-point Increase, citing recent data on inflation and growth.

Analysis

The synchronized pause by a group of major Central banks suggests a collective assessment that inflation pressures have eased enough to forego further tightening. By keeping rates steady, each institution signaled confidence in the current monetary stance while remaining alert to evolving economic data.

However, the decisions also preserve the option to resume tightening if inflation reaccelerates, keeping future policy paths open.

Uncertainty remains regarding the durability of the current price environment and external shocks that could prompt a policy rethink. Central banks will likely monitor upcoming data on wages, commodity prices, and currency movements before deciding whether to adjust rates in the coming months.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026: No change, 92% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Canada Decision in October?: No Change, 83% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Israel Decision in October?: No Change, 83% settles Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026: No change, 91% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · futuur · see the market
Central Bank of Colombia decision in October: No change, 62% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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