AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Saturday, 17 October 2026
Edition of Monday, 16 November 2026

Proof · plate 1 of 1 · pulled Sat 17 Oct · not a record of events

Ahead of Print Not yet happened. These stories settle within a month — by Monday, 16 November 2026.

Economics

Bank of England raised rates as Japan and Australia held steady

The Bank of England lifted its rate by 25 basis points; the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged.

84% certain
lead market 84%next 15%1 venuesettles Wed 4 Nov3 markets behind this

On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England increased its policy rate by 25 basis points. The move followed the Bank of Japan's decision on 30 October to keep its rate unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia also left its rate unchanged on Wednesday 4 November.

The Bank of England's increase was set at 25 basis points. It differed from the alternatives of no change, a larger hike or a decrease.

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged. It ruled out a 25-basis-point rise or a larger tightening.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its policy rate unchanged. It rejected options for a 25-basis-point increase, a decrease, or a larger hike.

Analysis

The Bank of England's modest 25-basis-point hike suggests a careful stance toward inflation while trying to avoid a sharp slowdown in growth. By opting for a small increase rather than a larger move, policymakers appear to be weighing the trade-off between price stability and economic activity.

Japan's decision to hold rates steady reflects its continued reliance on an accommodative policy framework. Maintaining the status quo indicates that inflation pressures remain subdued and that the central Bank sees little need for further tightening at this time.

Australia's unchanged rate points to a view that domestic conditions do not warrant immediate action. Holding the policy rate suggests confidence that current monetary settings are sufficient to support the economy without risking overheating.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Bank of England decision in November?: 25 bps increase, 92% settles Thursday, 5 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Bank of Japan Decision in October?: No change, 96% settles Friday, 30 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November: No change, 84% settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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