# 5%

*Economics. 21% certain. Friday, 4 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**1%**

5%.

1%, according to the latest figures.

5% threshold on Friday.

## Analysis

5% may have implications for economic policy, but the exact effects depend on various factors.

1% rate is unclear without more information about the broader economic context, which is not available.

## What this was built from

- **Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?**: did not happen, 94%; settles Friday, 4 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-august-2026-us-unemploymen)
- **US unemployment rate — August 2026**: Above 3.7%, 21%; settles Friday, 4 September 2026 (futuur). [Market](https://futuur.com/q/242627/us-unemployment-rate-august-2026)
- **August Unemployment Rate**: 4.1%, 34%; settles Friday, 4 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/august-unemployment-rate-1786116586124)