# Carlos Alcaraz may not win US open men's singles title

*Sports. 34% certain. Thursday, 24 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz won the title**

> **Revised Wednesday, 2 September 2026.** Jesper de Jong's victory over Francesco Passaro in the US Open ATP is now more certain. The outcomes of the other matches mentioned, including Tatjana Maria's win over Jelena Ostapenko and Iva Jovic's win over Magdalena Frech in the US Open WTA, and the non-occurrence of the Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse and Fabian Marozsan vs Michael Zheng matches in the US Open ATP, are also more certain.

Carlos Alcaraz did not win the 2026 US Open men's singles title as expected, with Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz winning the title instead.

Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz did not win the title, as they were eliminated.

Ben Shelton also did not win the title, despite being a contender.

The outcome of the title was not certain, with Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic not winning together.

The winner of the title was either Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz, with Carlos Alcaraz having a lower percentage of winning the title initially.

## Analysis

The result of the US Open men's singles title has significant implications for the Tennis world, particularly for American players who have not won a Grand Slam title since 2003.

The fact that Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz did not win the title suggests that the competition was fierce, and other players had a strong chance of winning.

The outcome of the title also affects the standings of top players, including Novak Djokovic, who is 39 and has played limited matches recently.

The win by either Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz indicates a shift in the balance of power in men's Tennis, with new players emerging as contenders for major titles.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [U.S. Open men’s title contenders: Jannik Sinner out, Carlos Alcaraz in and a U.S. man’s big chance? - The Athletic](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7530947/2026/08/23/us-open-mens-title-alcaraz-djokovic-zverev-american-man/)
- [2026 US Open – Men's singles - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_US_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_singles)
- [U.S. Open expert picks: Who will win the men's singles title?](https://tenngrand.com/us-open-expert-picks-who-will-win-the-mens-singles-title/)
- [U.S. Open storylines: Two long title waits converge as Williams sisters return to New York - The Athletic](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7535566/2026/08/29/us-open-tennis-2026-guide-storylines/)

## What this was built from

- **2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)**: Carlos Alcaraz, 34%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)
- **Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-carlos-alcaraz-win-the-2026-us-OPRhzSU265)
- **Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 82%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-win-the-2026)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 92%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-ben-shelton-w)
- **Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 92%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-ben-shelton-win-the-2026-us-op)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 94%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-taylor-fritz)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-carlos-alcara-gQOpuznhpE)
- **Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: Yes, 56%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-or-carlos-alc)
- **Will Carlos Alcaraz OR Novak Djokovic win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-carlos-alcaraz-or-novak-djokov)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 79%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-alexander-zve)
- **Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 93%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-taylor-fritz-win-the-2026-us-o)
- **Will Alexander Zverev OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 71%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-or-ben-shelto)