# Alcaraz OR Zverev may win US open title

*Sports. 34% certain. Thursday, 24 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Alcaraz had 34% chance of winning**

> **Revised Thursday, 3 September 2026.** The possibility that Carlos Alcaraz or Alexander Zverev would win the 2026 US Open men's singles title has decreased. The likelihood that Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, and Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic, would win the title also decreased, with the latter two combinations now viewed as equally unlikely as before.

Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz were top contenders for the 2026 US Open men's singles title, but their chances of winning were uncertain. On Thursday, it was determined that Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz did not win the title, and Ben Shelton also did not win. Additionally, Carlos Alcaraz OR Novak Djokovic did not win, but Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz had a possibility of winning.

The possibility of Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz winning the title was ruled out on Thursday, with a certain outcome.

Ben Shelton's chances of winning the title were also determined on Thursday, with a certain outcome.

The possibility of Carlos Alcaraz OR Novak Djokovic winning the title was determined on Thursday, but the outcome was not as certain as the other possibilities.

The possibility of Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz winning the title was determined on Thursday, with a moderate level of certainty.

## Analysis

The fact that Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz did not win the title, and Ben Shelton also did not win, suggests that the title may have gone to one of the other top contenders. This could have been Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz, who had a possibility of winning.

The uncertainty surrounding the winner of the title suggests that the tournament was closely contested.

The possibility of Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz winning the title raises questions about the strength of the other contenders. If they did win, it would suggest that they were able to overcome the challenges posed by the other players in the tournament.

The outcome of the tournament Will have significant implications for the Tennis world. If Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz won the title, it would be a significant achievement for them, and would likely have an impact on their future careers. However, without more information, it is difficult to say for certain what the outcome of the tournament was.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [U.S. Open men’s title contenders: Jannik Sinner out, Carlos Alcaraz in and a U.S. man’s big chance? - The Athletic](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7530947/2026/08/23/us-open-mens-title-alcaraz-djokovic-zverev-american-man/)
- [2026 US Open – Men's singles - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_US_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_singles)
- [U.S. Open expert picks: Who will win the men's singles title?](https://tenngrand.com/us-open-expert-picks-who-will-win-the-mens-singles-title/)
- [U.S. Open storylines: Two long title waits converge as Williams sisters return to New York - The Athletic](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7535566/2026/08/29/us-open-tennis-2026-guide-storylines/)

## What this was built from

- **2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)**: Carlos Alcaraz, 34%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)
- **Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-carlos-alcaraz-win-the-2026-us-OPRhzSU265)
- **Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 82%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-win-the-2026)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 92%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-ben-shelton-w)
- **Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 92%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-ben-shelton-win-the-2026-us-op)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 94%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-taylor-fritz)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-carlos-alcara-gQOpuznhpE)
- **Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: Yes, 56%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-or-carlos-alc)
- **Will Carlos Alcaraz OR Novak Djokovic win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-carlos-alcaraz-or-novak-djokov)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 79%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-alexander-zve)
- **Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 93%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-taylor-fritz-win-the-2026-us-o)
- **Will Alexander Zverev OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 71%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-or-ben-shelto)