# Carlos Alcaraz OR Alexander Zverev may win US open title

*Sports. 34% certain. Thursday, 24 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Alcaraz and Zverev among top contenders**

> **Revised Thursday, 3 September 2026.** The possibility of Carlos Alcaraz winning the 2026 US Open men's singles title decreased slightly, as did the possibility of Alexander Zverev winning. The possibility of other players, including Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz, winning also changed, with their chances of winning decreasing.

Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev were among the top contenders for the 2026 US Open men's singles title, but the outcome was uncertain. On Thursday, it was determined that Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz would not win the title, and Ben Shelton would also not be the champion.

Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz were ruled out as potential winners, with their combined chances of taking the title determined to be low on Thursday.

Ben Shelton's chances of winning the title were also determined to be low, at 8%, on Thursday, indicating he would not be the champion.

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, another top contender, had a combined chance of winning that was determined to be lower than expected, at 37%, on Thursday.

Earlier, Carlos Alcaraz had been identified as a potential winner, with a 34% chance of taking the title, while Alexander Zverev had a 21% chance, and the outcome was still uncertain on Sunday, September 13.

## Analysis

The fact that Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev may win the US Open title suggests that the competition was fierce, with several top contenders vying for the championship. The determination that Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz would not win, as well as Ben Shelton's low chances, indicates a shift in the expected outcome.

The combined chance of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic winning was lower than expected, which may indicate that other contenders, such as Alexander Zverev, had a stronger showing than anticipated.

The earlier identification of Carlos Alcaraz as a potential winner, with a 34% chance of taking the title, suggests that he was a strong contender from the start. However, the fact that Alexander Zverev had a 21% chance indicates that the outcome was still uncertain, and several players had a realistic chance of winning.

The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US Open men's singles title highlights the competitive nature of the tournament. With several top contenders and a range of possible outcomes, the eventual winner would have had to navigate a challenging field to emerge victorious. The fact that Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev were among the top contenders adds to the intrigue, as both players have shown strong performances in the past.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [U.S. Open men’s title contenders: Jannik Sinner out, Carlos Alcaraz in and a U.S. man’s big chance? - The Athletic](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7530947/2026/08/23/us-open-mens-title-alcaraz-djokovic-zverev-american-man/)
- [2026 US Open – Men's singles - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_US_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_singles)
- [U.S. Open expert picks: Who will win the men's singles title?](https://tenngrand.com/us-open-expert-picks-who-will-win-the-mens-singles-title/)
- [U.S. Open storylines: Two long title waits converge as Williams sisters return to New York - The Athletic](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7535566/2026/08/29/us-open-tennis-2026-guide-storylines/)

## What this was built from

- **2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)**: Carlos Alcaraz, 34%; settles Sunday, 13 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-mens-us-open-winner-tennis)
- **Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-carlos-alcaraz-win-the-2026-us-OPRhzSU265)
- **Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 82%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-win-the-2026)
- **Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 92%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-ben-shelton-win-the-2026-us-op)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 94%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-taylor-fritz)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-carlos-alcara-gQOpuznhpE)
- **Will Alexander Zverev OR Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: Yes, 56%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-or-carlos-alc)
- **Will Carlos Alcaraz OR Novak Djokovic win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 63%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-carlos-alcaraz-or-novak-djokov)
- **Will Jannik Sinner OR Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 79%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-jannik-sinner-or-alexander-zve)
- **Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 93%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-taylor-fritz-win-the-2026-us-o)
- **Will Alexander Zverev OR Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?**: did not happen, 71%; settles Thursday, 24 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-alexander-zverev-or-ben-shelto)