# US kept ceasefires with Iran and Yemen through late October

*World. 76% certain. Wednesday, 4 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The United States extended its Yemen ceasefire to Oct. 31 and its Iran ceasefire through the midterms, without new sanctions relief or agreements.**

On Saturday, Oct. 31, the United States confirmed that its ceasefire with Yemen remained in effect through the end of the month. The same day it noted that no senior diplomatic meeting with Iran had taken place by that deadline. By Sunday, Nov. 1, the United States had not issued any new relief on Iranian oil sanctions or reached a Hormuz agreement.

The Yemen truce, originally brokered earlier in the conflict, persisted unchanged until Oct. 31. No extension beyond that date was announced. The United States maintained its enforcement of the ceasefire through the end of the month.

No senior diplomatic engagement occurred before Oct. 31, and no further talks were scheduled. The continuation was confirmed without any accompanying diplomatic milestones.

The United States did not reissue any oil-sanction relief for Iran by the Oct. 31 deadline. Likewise, no Hormuz agreement was reached by Nov. 1. Both initiatives remained pending.

As the November midterms approached, the United States kept both ceasefires in place. No new diplomatic breakthroughs were reported during the period. The policy stance remained unchanged through the week.

## Analysis

By keeping the status quo, Washington avoids immediate escalation but also foregoes opportunities to leverage the ceasefires for broader concessions or conflict de-escalation.

In Yemen, the unchanged truce curtails direct U.S. combat involvement, yet it leaves the underlying power struggle between the Houthis and the internationally recognized government unresolved. Shipping routes in the Red Sea remain vulnerable, and humanitarian assistance continues to depend on the fragile pause in hostilities.

The persistence of the Iran ceasefire through the midterm elections reflects domestic political considerations, as policymakers weigh electoral repercussions against foreign-policy risks. The absence of renewed oil-sanction relief and a Hormuz agreement suggests that sanctions pressure and strategic bargaining remain tools the United States is unwilling to relax without tangible diplomatic progress.

Uncertainty persists regarding the durability of both ceasefires once the electoral cycle ends and new congressional leadership assumes office. Future diplomatic initiatives will depend on the willingness of Tehran and the Houthi movement to engage, as well as on the United States' assessment of regional security benefits versus the costs of renewed pressure or military involvement.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea | Global Conflict Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-yemen)
- [March–May 2025 United States attacks in Yemen - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March%E2%80%93May_2025_United_States_attacks_in_Yemen)
- [US–UK airstrikes on Yemen - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US%E2%80%93UK_airstrikes_on_Yemen)
- [Red Sea crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)

## What this was built from

- **US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 89%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 96%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?**: Yes, 76%; settles Wednesday, 4 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midterms)
- **Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)**: No, 95%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?**: No, 94%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046)