# Iran directly strikes US military base in September

*World. 61% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**No US-Iran Nuclear deal reached by September 30**

Iran directly struck a US military base in September, as a US-Iran final Nuclear deal by September 30 did not happen. A new US-Iran ceasefire did not take effect before October 1, and no US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurred by September 30. The US and Iran did not agree to a Hormuz agreement by September 15, and Iran did not charge Hormuz fees by September 30.

The US and Iran did not reach a Nuclear deal by September 30, and Iran did not agree to end enrichment of uranium by September 30. The Israel-Iran ceasefire continued through September 30, but a new US-Iran ceasefire did not take effect before October 1.

Iran's leadership did not change by September 30, and the country did not impose a full airspace closure by September 30. The US did not announce tougher Iran sanctions within 14 days of a specific op-ed, and an Effective US-Iran ceasefire by September 4 did not happen.

The US and Iran did not have a diplomatic meeting by September 30, and the next round of US-Iran peace talks did not occur by September 30. The US did not sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, and Iran did not agree to end enrichment of uranium by September 30.

The lack of a US-Iran Nuclear deal and the direct strike on a US military base by Iran occurred as the US and Iran failed to reach agreements on several issues, including a Hormuz agreement and a new ceasefire.

## Analysis

The direct strike on a US military base by Iran in September indicates a significant escalation of tensions between the two countries. The failure to reach a US-Iran final Nuclear deal by September 30 and the lack of a new ceasefire agreement suggest that the conflict is far from being resolved.

The continued Israel-Iran ceasefire through September 30 provides some stability in the region, but the absence of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting and the failure to agree on a Hormuz agreement contribute to the uncertainty. The US and Iran's inability to reach agreements on these issues may lead to further escalation of the conflict.

The fact that Iran's leadership did not change by September 30 and the country did not impose a full airspace closure by September 30 may indicate that Iran is maintaining its current stance on the conflict. The US's decision not to announce tougher Iran sanctions within 14 days of a specific op-ed may be seen as a attempt to avoid further escalation, but the lack of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement by September 4 suggests that the conflict is ongoing.

The implications of the direct strike on a US military base by Iran and the failure to reach a US-Iran Nuclear deal are significant, and the situation remains uncertain. The US and Iran's inability to reach agreements on key issues contributes to the ongoing conflict, and the region remains volatile.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations)
- [U.S. and Iran Blow Through Deadline to Agree to a Broad Deal to End War - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/17/world/middleeast/iran-mou-deadline.html)
- [The 60-day deadline for an Iran peace deal is expiring. Here's where things stand - Newsday](https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/iran-us-war-diplomacy-deal-deadline-nuclear-k03571)
- [2026 Iran war ceasefire - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire)
- [Iran nuclear deal - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal)
- [What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal? | Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/what-iran-nuclear-deal)

## What this was built from

- **Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?**: did not happen, 74%; settles Saturday, 5 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ToniBreak/will-the-us-announce-materially-tou)
- **Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?**: did not happen, 97%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ExcuseMeSir/will-iran-and-the-us-reach-a-formal)
- **Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?**: No Meeting by September 30, 87%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-beptptpt-20260623023740663)
- **Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?**: Yes, 87%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-iran-directly-strike-a-us-mili)
- **US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?**: did not happen, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412)
- **Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?**: did not happen, 83%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-a-new-usiran-ceasefire-take-ef)
- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?**: Yes, 86%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?**: did not happen, 90%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982)
- **Iran leadership change by September 30?**: did not happen, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by)
- **Iran full airspace closure by September 30?**: did not happen, 92%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028)
- **Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?**: did not happen, 89%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-ofac-sanction-a-mainland-chine)
- **US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?**: did not happen, 95%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?**: did not happen, 89%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?**: did not happen, 89%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)
- **US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?**: did not happen, 61%; settles Friday, 4 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-begins-byptptpt-2-week-pause)
- **Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?**: did not happen, 97%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-september-30-20260709004922353)