# US September CPI showed 3.6% annual inflation

*Economics. 37% certain. Thursday, 15 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Annual inflation reached 3.6% and Core CPI was 2.5% YoY and monthly CPI rose 0.6%.**

On Thursday, 15 October 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released September CPI data. The report showed consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.5% on a year-over-year basis.

The 0.6% monthly gain added to the cumulative rise observed over the past year. This monthly acceleration contributed to the 3.6% headline inflation figure. The Core CPI reading was 2.5% year-over-year.

Core CPI's 2.5% year-over-year growth is calculated after stripping out volatile food and energy components. Both measures are used by policymakers to assess price stability.

The data were released as part of the regular monthly CPI publication schedule. The release completed the statistical update for September 2026 on Thursday.

## Analysis

The 3.6% annual inflation figure places the United States in a moderate price-increase environment, suggesting that headline price pressures are not accelerating sharply year over year.

Core CPI's 2.5% YoY rise, which excludes food and energy, provides a view of underlying inflation trends; its modest level indicates that Core price dynamics remain relatively contained.

The 0.6% monthly increase shows that price growth continued in September, reinforcing the annual headline rate and confirming that short-term inflation momentum persisted during the reporting period.

## What this was built from

- **September Inflation US - Annual**: 3.6%, 45%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/september-inflation-us-annual)
- **September Inflation US - Monthly**: 0.6%, 40%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/september-inflation-us-monthly)
- **Core CPI YoY - September 2026**: 2.5%, 47%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-yoy-september-2026)
- **Core CPI MoM - September 2026**: 0.2%, 37%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-mom-september-2026)