# September CPI rose 0.6% as Unemployment held at 4.1%

*Economics. 34% certain. Thursday, 15 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Annual inflation eased to 3.6% while Core prices grew 2.4% in September.**

The Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6% in September, surpassing the 0.3% threshold. On a year-over-year basis, overall inflation registered 3.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, advanced 2.4% over the same period.

The 0.6% month-over-month gain represented the minimum rise confirmed for September. This figure confirmed that headline inflation exceeded the 0.3% level recorded earlier in the month. The data were released on Wednesday, 14 October.

The annual CPI-U rate of 3.6% placed September's inflation above the previous month's level. Core CPI's 2.4% increase indicated a slower rise in underlying price pressures. These year-over-year numbers were published on Thursday, 15 October.

The Unemployment rate for September held at 4.1%, unchanged from the prior report. This figure was released on Friday, 2 October.

Together, the September CPI and Unemployment numbers offered the latest set of economic indicators released in October. The figures arrived ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy deliberations.

## Analysis

The 0.6% monthly increase keeps inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting that price pressures remain elevated despite a modest easing from earlier months.

Annual inflation at 3.6% and a 2.4% rise in Core CPI show that while overall price growth has slowed, underlying inflation is still higher than the desired level, which can influence expectations for further monetary tightening.

## What this was built from

- **September Inflation US - Annual**: 3.6%, 47%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/september-inflation-us-annual)
- **Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?**: Yes, 95%; settles Wednesday, 14 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-september-2026-headline-cpiu-r)
- **September Inflation US - Monthly**: 0.6%, 38%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/september-inflation-us-monthly)
- **Core CPI YoY - September 2026**: 2.4%, 47%; settles Thursday, 15 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-yoy-september-2026)
- **September Unemployment Rate**: 4.1%, 34%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/september-unemployment-rate-2026)