# U.S. gasoline averaged over $4 per gallon on October 1

*Economics. 98% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Gasoline stayed above $4 per gallon and Crude Oil did not set a new record high.**

On October 1, the U.S. Average gasoline price remained at $4.00 per gallon or higher. The price level persisted even though West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil did not reach a new all-time high by the end of September. In September, WTI Crude Oil also avoided falling to $80 a barrel.

Data showed the price never dropped below that amount during the day. Nationwide retail gasoline costs therefore stayed at or above four dollars per gallon.

Crude Oil prices did not set a new all-time high by September 30. The benchmark therefore closed the month without a fresh high.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil stayed above $80 a barrel throughout September. The low-price target of $80 was not reached during the month. The benchmark therefore never fell to that level before the month ended.

## Analysis

Gasoline staying above $4 while Crude Oil failed to hit a record suggests that the retail fuel price is being driven by factors beyond Crude input costs.

Without a price spike at the benchmark, expectations for lower gasoline prices were not met.

WTI not slipping to $80 a barrel shows that the low-price target was missed, reinforcing the view that Oil prices remained relatively firm. This firmness, combined with other cost components, helped sustain the $4-plus gasoline level.

## What this was built from

- **US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?**: Yes, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-gas-price-is-4000-or-mor)
- **US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?**: Yes, 98%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-gas-price-is-4400-or-mor-sLUUcA6EsS)
- **US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?**: No, 99%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-gas-price-is-4600-or-mor)
- **Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?**: No, 99%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)
- **Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?**: No, 100%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026)