# Starship makes orbit on first attempt

*Science. 92% certain. Friday, 2 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore**

Starship made orbit on its first attempt and Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore. Starship did not refuel in orbit before it was successfully caught.

Starship Ship 40 was recovered to shore, which happened on Wednesday.

Starship made orbit on first attempt, a result that was confirmed on Friday.

Starship did not refuel in orbit before it was successfully caught, which was also confirmed on Friday.

## Analysis

The successful orbit and recovery of Starship Ship 40 mark a crucial step for SpaceX, as it brings the company closer to its goal of reusable spacecraft. The fact that Starship did not refuel in orbit suggests that this technology is still in development, and its implementation is yet to be seen.

The recovery of Starship Ship 40 to shore is significant, as it demonstrates the ability to refurbish and potentially reuse the spacecraft. This could have major implications for the cost and efficiency of space travel, particularly for missions that require multiple launches.

However, the lack of orbital refueling means that there are still significant technical challenges to be overcome before SpaceX can achieve its goal of sending a heavily loaded Ship to Mars.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [SpaceX Starship - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship)
- [Starship HLS - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_HLS)
- [SpaceX Starship (spacecraft) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft))
- [The biggest unproven technology standing between Starship and Mars is not the rocket or the distance—it is large-scale orbital refuelling. Spacecraft have transferred conventional propellants in orbit since 1978, but no one has docked two giant spacecraft and moved hundreds of tonnes of supercold methane and oxygen between them, potentially over multiple tanker flights. After Starship’s 13th test flight in July 2026, SpaceX still had not attempted it.](https://spacedaily.com/t-starship-large-scale-orbital-refuelling-mars/)

## What this was built from

- **Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?**: Yes, 92%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/BrianOlson/will-starship-make-orbit-on-first-a)
- **Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?**: Yes, 94%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-starship-ship-40-be-recovered)
- **Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?**: did not happen, 97%; settles Friday, 2 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles42ce/will-starship-refuel-in-orbit-befor)