# Parti Québécois won Quebec election, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier

*Politics. 76% certain. Tuesday, 6 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The PQ secured a majority and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier, with no referendum scheduled for the term.**

Quebec held its provincial election on Tuesday, 6 October 2026. Voters chose the Parti Québécois over the Liberal, CAQ and Conservative parties. The PQ's victory installed Paul St-Pierre Plamondon as Premier and the government announced that no referendum would be held during the upcoming term.

Turnout figures were reported but not detailed in the release. The outcome ended a period of competition among the four major parties.

Following the win, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was sworn in as Premier in a ceremony held later on Tuesday. He assumed the province's executive duties immediately, replacing the previous administration. His government outlined its initial agenda in a brief statement.

The decision not to hold a referendum was confirmed on Saturday, 3 October, before the election results were announced.

## Analysis

This change is likely to affect policy priorities, especially in areas where the PQ traditionally differs from its rivals, such as language law and cultural programs.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's assumption of the premiership introduces a new leadership style and agenda. As the head of a majority government, he now has the capacity to implement the party's platform without coalition constraints, which may accelerate legislative actions and reshape the provincial bureaucracy.

The confirmation that no referendum will be held during the term reduces immediate pressure on the sovereignty debate, allowing the government to concentrate on governance issues. While the question of Quebec's status remains a long-term political theme, its exclusion from the short-term agenda may temper separatist activism and alter the dynamics of intergovernmental relations with the federal government.

## What this was built from

- **Quebec General Election Winner**: PQ, 96%; settles Tuesday, 6 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner)
- **Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?**: No, 76%; settles Saturday, 3 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-there-be-a-quebec-referendum-i)
- **Next Premier of Quebec**: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 94%; settles Tuesday, 6 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-premier-of-quebec-594)