# Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became Premier as Parti Québécois won election

*Politics. 77% certain. Monday, 5 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The Parti Québécois secured a majority and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon led the province without a referendum.**

Quebec voters delivered a victory to the Parti Québécois in the provincial election held on Monday. The party secured enough seats to form government, and its leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was sworn in as Premier The new administration announced that it would not pursue a referendum on sovereignty during its term.

The vote count on Monday confirmed the Parti Québécois as the winning party. The Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Québec each failed to secure a plurality of seats. The contest also featured candidates Christine Fréchette, Sol Zanetti and Ruba Ghazal, none of whom attained the premiership.

The government also confirmed that no referendum on sovereignty would be scheduled for the upcoming term. This announcement came on Saturday, three days before the Premier was sworn in. The decision closed a question that had been raised during the campaign.

With both outcomes determined, the new government prepared to begin its mandate. The province entered the new term under the leadership of Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

## Analysis

The Parti Québécois' election win and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's accession to the premiership represent a clear reversal from the previous Liberal and CAQ administrations, indicating a shift toward the party's traditional platform.

By explicitly ruling out a sovereignty referendum for the next term, the government eliminates a major point of contention that has historically divided Quebec society and strained relations with Ottawa.

Nevertheless, the new administration will still need to manage expectations among pro-sovereignty supporters, negotiate fiscal and policy matters with the federal government, and demonstrate its ability to govern without relying on a referendum agenda; the outcome of those efforts remains uncertain.

## What this was built from

- **Quebec General Election Winner**: PQ, 96%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner)
- **Will there be a Quebec referendum in the next provincial term?**: No, 77%; settles Saturday, 3 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-there-be-a-quebec-referendum-i)
- **Next Premier of Quebec**: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 97%; settles Monday, 5 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-premier-of-quebec-594)