# OpenAI valuation plateaued just below $1 trillion

*Science. 51% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**OpenAI's value stayed under $1 trillion and it released a Cyber model classified as Critical.**

OpenAI's valuation at the end of September settled between $900 billion and $1 trillion, keeping it just under the $1 trillion mark. The company rolled out a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by September 30. It also classified one of its models as having "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework.

In the Code Arena WebDev AI Lab rankings for September, OpenAI placed Second, trailing the top performer. The assessment was finalized on September 30. This positioning reflected OpenAI's continued strength in web development assistance despite valuation constraints.

The AI Agent Lab results for the same period also listed OpenAI as the Second-best participant. The ranking was confirmed on September 30.

The Critical classification applied to a model designated for high-risk applications under the company's Preparedness Framework. This move signaled OpenAI's focus on managing advanced model risks.

OpenAI Did not obtain a U.S. trademark for the "GPT" name, as confirmed on October 1. The firm also Did not release the anticipated GPT Terra 5.7+ model by the end of September. No new Millennium Prize solution was announced, and a purported hodge puzzle remained unsolved. These missed milestones contrasted with the earlier releases and classifications.

## Analysis

Investors may view the plateau as a signal of limited growth momentum, which could affect future fundraising and partnership negotiations.

Releasing a Cyber model to a restricted user group shows a strategic focus on specialized, high-performance offerings while managing broader exposure.

The absence of a GPT Terra 5.7+ release and a new Millennium Prize solution suggests that research milestones expected by the community were not met, which may affect the firm's reputation in the AI research arena.

Together, the mixed outcomes paint a picture of a company consolidating its existing strengths in specific labs and safety practices while missing several high-visibility opportunities.

## What this was built from

- **OpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?**: $900B-$1.00T, 85%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/openais-valuation-end-of-september-2026)
- **Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?**: No, 54%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-september-30-20260829005000011)
- **Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?**: No, 91%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-september-30-20260829005000011)
- **Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?**: Yes, 51%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-openai-broadly-release-a-dedic)
- **Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?**: Yes, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-openai-classify-any-model-as-c)
- **Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?**: No, 89%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-openai-be-granted-a-trademark)
- **Did OpenAI just solve hodge??**: No, 89%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Incompleteusern/did-openai-just-solve-hodge)
- **Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by)
- **Second-best AI Agent Lab end of September?**: OpenAI, 94%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/second-best-ai-agent-lab-end-of-september-20260812152609626)
- **Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?**: OpenAI, 97%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/second-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-lab-end-of-september-20260722215814727)
- **Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?**: No, 97%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/next-openai-gpt-terra-5pt7-released-byptptpt)