# US and China sealed tariff deal as Canada posted marginal growth

*Economics. 64% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Colombia kept its policy rate unchanged, completing a trio of regional developments.**

The United States and China finalized a tariff agreement by the end of September, removing a major trade barrier between the two economies. In the same period, Canada reported marginal month-over-month growth in July, with GDP expanding between zero and a tenth of a percent. Meanwhile, Colombia's Central Bank left its policy rate unchanged, signaling a steady monetary stance across the region.

The agreement was reached on September 30, concluding the tariff dispute between the United States and China. It eliminated the tariffs that had been applied between the two countries.

Canada's national accounts showed a month-over-month increase in July 2026. Growth measured between zero and a tenth of a percent, indicating a barely perceptible expansion. The data were released on September 29.

Colombia's Central Bank announced its monetary policy decision for September on October 1. The board left the policy rate unchanged, opting not to adjust interest rates. This stance kept the monetary environment steady as of the end of the month.

## Analysis

Canada's marginal GDP increase suggests that economic activity is barely expanding, offering little momentum to drive a stronger outlook for the country. The minimal growth may reflect subdued consumer demand or lingering supply-chain constraints, and it limits the capacity of the Canadian economy to influence broader regional dynamics in the near term.

Together with the US-China tariff resolution and Canada's modest growth, the unchanged rate contributes to a mixed but relatively steady economic environment across the North-American region as September 2026 concludes.

## What this was built from

- **Central Bank of Colombia decision in September**: No change, 73%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-september-20260630004643935)
- **US x China tariff agreement by September 30?**: Yes, 86%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31)
- **Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)**: 0.0 to 0.1%, 64%; settles Tuesday, 29 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/canada-gdp-july-2026-mom)