# Chris Pappas wins New Hampshire Democratic senate primary

*Politics. 76% certain. Tuesday, 8 September 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Cinde Warmington wins governor primary**

Chris Pappas won the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday. Cinde Warmington won the New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary, while Maura Sullivan won the NH-01 Democratic Primary and Anthony DiLorenzo won the NH-01 Republican Primary.

Cinde Warmington's victory in the governor primary was over other candidates, including John Kiper, Tom Sherman, and Donovan Fenton.

In the NH-01 Democratic Primary, Maura Sullivan's win came over other candidates, including Stefany Shaheen, Carleigh Beriont, and Heath Howard.

The NH-01 Republican Primary was won by Anthony DiLorenzo, who defeated other candidates, including Hollie Noveletsky and Elizabeth Girard.

Chris Pappas' win in the senate primary was over Karishma Manzur.

## Analysis

The outcome of the primaries may have implications for the general election, particularly in the governor's race, where the Republican incumbent is running for re-election. The Democratic winners Will now face their Republican opponents in the November election.

The winners of the primaries Will need to appeal to a broad range of voters in order to win in November.

Without more information about the candidates' strategies and the voters' preferences, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the general election.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election)
- [New Hampshire Primary Election Results 2026 : NPR](https://apps.npr.org/primary-election-results-2026/states/NH.html)
- [2026 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_Hampshire)
- [NH governor's race: The sleepiest state primary? | New Hampshire Public Radio](https://www.nhpr.org/politics/2026-09-02/governor-primary-ayotte-warmington-candidates-whos-running-republican-democrat)

## What this was built from

- **Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?**: Yes, 96%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-chris-pappas-win-the-2026-new)
- **New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner**: Chris Pappas, 96%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner)
- **NH-01 Republican Primary Winner**: Anthony DiLorenzo, 76%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nh-01-republican-primary-winner)
- **NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner**: Maura Sullivan, 84%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/nh-01-democratic-primary-winner)
- **New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner**: Cinde Warmington, 97%; settles Tuesday, 8 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-governor-democratic-primary-winner)