# NASA Budget may increase, SpaceX developments unfold

*Science. 56% certain. Thursday, 1 October 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**SpaceX stock closes below $170**

SpaceX and NASA developments unfolded in recent weeks, with the FY27 NASA Budget potentially larger than FY25, and SpaceX closing below $170 at the end of the month. A merger between Tesla and SpaceX was not officially announced by September 30. SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 did not launch by September 15.

SpaceX stock closed below $170 at the end of the month, a threshold it did not surpass. This development came as the company continued to work on its Starship program.

The Starship program saw a delay in its Flight Test 14, which did not launch by September 15. This Test was a key milestone in the development of the Starship.

A potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX was not officially announced by September 30, despite speculation about a possible combination. The lack of an announcement suggests that the two companies may not be moving forward with a merger at this time.

The FY27 NASA Budget may be larger than FY25, a development that could have significant implications for the space agency and its programs. The Budget process is ongoing, and the final outcome is still uncertain.

## Analysis

The developments at SpaceX and NASA have significant implications for the space industry. A potential increase in the NASA Budget could provide more funding for programs and projects, while SpaceX's Starship program continues to move forward despite delays. The lack of a merger announcement between Tesla and SpaceX suggests that the two companies may be focusing on their individual goals and objectives.

The Starship program is a key part of SpaceX's plans, and the delay in Flight Test 14 may have implications for the company's timeline and milestones. However, the company continues to work on the program, and the eventual launch of the Test is still expected. The relationship between SpaceX and NASA is also important, as the two entities work together on various projects and programs.

The potential increase in the NASA Budget and the developments at SpaceX are interconnected, as the space agency's funding can impact the companies and projects it works with. The lack of a merger announcement between Tesla and SpaceX adds another layer of complexity to the situation, as the two companies continue to evolve and grow in their respective industries. The outcome of these developments Will depend on a variety of factors, including the final NASA Budget and the progress of SpaceX's Starship program.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announce date Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlate](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30/)
- [Polymarket Gives 18% Odds to a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement in 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/polymarket-gives-18-odds-tesla-225026188.html)
- [UPDATE: Tesla & SpaceX Merger Announcement Inbound - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYAFexsnL14)
- [Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking](https://www.teslarati.com/another-tesla-spacex-merger-prediction-by-ark-invest-has-elon-musk-talking/)

## What this was built from

- **Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?**: Yes, 56%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/LarsOsborne/will-the-fy27-nasa-budget-be-larger)
- **SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?**: did not happen, 87%; settles Wednesday, 30 September 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/waitblock/spacex-closes-above-170-at-end-of-m)
- **Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?**: did not happen, 95%; settles Thursday, 1 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30)
- **Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?**: did not happen, 81%; settles Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-14)