# US maintained Iranian blockade as maritime traffic stayed disrupted

*World. 84% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Kharg Island remained under Tehran's control and the IAEA made no site visits.**

On Sunday 1 November the United States announced no change to its blockade of Iranian shipping. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remained disrupted, and Iranian-controlled Kharg Island stayed under Tehran's authority. Israeli airspace stayed open and the International Atomic Energy Agency made no visits to Iranian nuclear facilities.

The naval embargo stayed in place, meaning Iranian oil shipments from Kharg Island continued to face restrictions. Kharg Island, a key export hub, remained under Iranian control as of 31 October. No U.S. announcement ended the blockade, confirming the status quo.

Vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz did not return to normal levels by the end of October. Shipping companies reported continued delays and rerouting around the waterway. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait also stayed operational, with no effective closure recorded.

Israeli airspace remained open, with no closure imposed through 31 October. The IAEA did not conduct inspections at Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz during the same period. The absence of visits left the nuclear monitoring situation unchanged.

Regional tensions persisted unchanged as the key flashpoints stayed active. The combination of an ongoing blockade, disrupted maritime routes, and unchanged airspace contributed to a stable but strained security environment.

## Analysis

Tehran's continued control of the Island gives it a foothold for limited shipments, but the broader export capacity stays constrained.

The continued disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb forces vessels to take longer routes, raising shipping costs and encouraging alternative logistics. These delays signal that the underlying maritime tension has not eased, preserving a risk premium for regional trade.

Israeli airspace remaining open avoids a direct escalation with Israel, yet it also reflects that Israel has not taken further punitive measures. The IAEA's lack of inspections provides no new verification data, limiting the international community's ability to assess the status of Iran's nuclear activities.

Overall, the status quo forces regional actors to operate under heightened alert, with limited diplomatic breakthroughs on the horizon. Uncertainty remains about whether future negotiations could alter the blockade or lead to renewed nuclear inspections, leaving the security environment fragile.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Brent Crude $103.67 as Kharg Island Odds Stay Near Zero](https://financefeeds.com/brent-crude-oil-price-103-kharg-island-september-30-bull-120-bear-90/)
- [Timeline of the 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war)
- [Iran Has a Problem: It Tried to Hold the World Hostage Using the Strait of Hormuz and that Plan Is Collapsing - National Security Journal](https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/iran-has-a-problem-it-tried-to-hold-the-world-hostage-using-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-that-plan-is-collapsing/)
- [Kharg Island Operations Under Strain Amid US-Iran Gulf Conflict](https://www.maritimenews.com/kharg-island/kharg-island-operations-strain-us-iran-gulf)

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 84%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 98%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?**: No, 93%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by)
- **IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014)