# Key maritime chokepoints and airspaces remained open through October

*World. 83% certain. Thursday, 12 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed disrupted while Saudi and Israeli airspace stayed open.**

By the close of October 2026, none of the region's critical maritime passages or national airspaces reported closures or regime changes. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal levels, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait stayed operational. Saudi and Israeli airspace continued to be accessible, and the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem was left untouched.

The expected normalization of ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz did not materialize, confirming that traffic had not returned to pre-crisis volumes by October 31. Similarly, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was not effectively closed, allowing vessels to continue transiting the route. The United States made no declaration ending any blockade of Iranian shipping during the same period.

The Iranian political leadership remained in place, with no fall of the regime reported by the end of the month. Control of Kharg Island stayed under Iranian authority, and no shift in ownership was recorded. These outcomes indicated continuity in Iran's strategic assets.

Houthis did not advance into Aden, and Perim Island stayed under their control. Saudi airspace remained open throughout October, showing no restrictions imposed by the conflict. Israeli airspace also stayed operational, with no closures reported.

The Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem was not destroyed during the period, preserving the status quo of the holy site. No major announcements altered the security environment.

## Analysis

The uninterrupted operation of the Bab el-Mandeb and the openness of Saudi and Israeli airspace removed immediate barriers to commercial shipping and aviation, sustaining the flow of goods and passengers across the Red Sea and the Middle East. This stability helped avoid sudden spikes in freight costs that typically accompany route closures.

However, the failure of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels signals that underlying geopolitical tensions persisted. The Strait remains a chokepoint for a significant share of global oil shipments, and continued reduced throughput can keep oil prices volatile and pressure insurance premiums for vessels transiting the passage.

The lack of change in Iran's internal political structure and the retention of key assets such as Kharg Island suggest that Tehran's strategic posture remained largely unchanged. This continuity limits the likelihood of rapid policy shifts that could either exacerbate or de-escalate regional confrontations in the short term.

While the current status quo reduces the risk of an abrupt disruption, the situation remains fragile.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Strait of Hormuz Closed, Day 229 | Live Tracker & Monitor](https://straits.live/)
- [Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracker — Real-Time Shipping & Oil Crisis Monitor](https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/)
- [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis)
- [Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? — Winion](https://winion.app/en/markets/cmsa0r6hh036wah0niyulilb7)

## What this was built from

- **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080)
- **Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?**: No, 100%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583)
- **Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by)
- **Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31)
- **Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt)
- **Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?**: No, 90%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-by)
- **Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?**: No, 95%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt)
- **Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?**: No, 83%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916)
- **Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?**: No, 96%; settles Thursday, 12 November 2026 (manifold). [Market](https://manifold.markets/MattF/will-the-dome-of-the-rock-in-jerusa)
- **Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?**: No, 99%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-october-31)